Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 19, 2026 · Jackson Jobe vs Sean Burke · 66°F

2.1% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

48.2%

Chicago White Sox win

51.8%

Fair line (home)

-107

Proj. total

8.9

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.45)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.46)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.9

Over

50.1%

Under

42.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	48.2%	+112	+107
Chicago White Sox	51.8%	-122	-107

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jackson Jobe RHP · Detroit Tigers	4.7	4.4	4.6	2.3	2.3
Sean Burke RHP · Chicago White Sox	5.1	5.0	4.9	2.1	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Jackson Jobe4+ 65%6+ 26%8+ 6%

Sean Burke4+ 75%6+ 38%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.8	.723	.188	.028	.158	.695	.692	.268	.379	.444	.823
Hao-Yu Lee	4.7	.657	.175	.026	.146	.416	1.086	.236	.310	.392	.703
Colt Keith	4.6	.717	.172	.032	.148	.460	.927	.261	.340	.427	.767
Riley Greene	4.5	.625	.178	.016	.201	.513	1.234	.259	.349	.465	.815
Dillon Dingler	4.4	.586	.171	.015	.187	.308	1.057	.240	.306	.431	.737
Max Clark	4.3	.629	.150	.037	.107	.455	.878	.243	.331	.387	.717
Ben Malgeri	4.2	.552	.154	.027	.122	.383	1.166	.229	.308	.383	.691
Brett Callahan	4.1	.572	.133	.028	.106	.299	1.121	.226	.294	.363	.656
John Peck	3.9	.615	.144	.018	.087	.233	1.027	.236	.289	.356	.645

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.7	.806	.188	.032	.082	.452	.686	.274	.369	.396	.765
Kyle Teel	4.5	.691	.152	.006	.145	.554	1.130	.251	.350	.402	.752
Miguel Vargas	4.4	.575	.189	.011	.169	.597	.756	.249	.358	.438	.796
Munetaka Murakami	4.3	.440	.105	.006	.256	.706	1.327	.224	.357	.470	.827
Andrew Benintendi	4.2	.657	.160	.015	.133	.408	.774	.254	.331	.410	.740
Colson Montgomery	4.1	.455	.138	.006	.197	.389	1.232	.216	.302	.418	.720
Chase Meidroth	4.0	.677	.154	.003	.079	.455	.698	.260	.354	.374	.727
Braden Montgomery	3.9	.568	.151	.029	.096	.380	.919	.242	.323	.384	.707
Brenton Doyle	3.8	.547	.126	.015	.111	.271	1.041	.229	.288	.369	.658

Data notes: away starter Jackson Jobe: only 41 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections