Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Tomoyuki Sugano vs Sean Burke · 58°F

4.6% edge · Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies win

36.3%

Chicago White Sox win

63.7%

Fair line (home)

-176

Proj. total

10.07

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 4.42)Chicago White Sox (mean 5.65)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.07

Over

60.2%

Under

32.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	36.3%	+209	+176
Chicago White Sox	63.7%	-232	-176

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.8	3.4	6.3	1.5	3.2
Sean Burke RHP · Chicago White Sox	5.1	4.8	5.0	1.9	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Tomoyuki Sugano4+ 44%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Sean Burke4+ 72%6+ 35%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.816	.166	.076	.111	.338	.840	.267	.330	.416	.745
Adael Amador	4.7	.681	.163	.021	.127	.508	.782	.240	.330	.382	.712
Hunter Goodman	4.6	.530	.173	.024	.267	.362	1.333	.239	.306	.484	.790
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.710	.186	.015	.126	.508	.765	.266	.359	.419	.777
Kyle Karros	4.3	.660	.180	.026	.118	.503	.960	.259	.353	.413	.767
Mickey Moniak	4.3	.542	.145	.052	.185	.265	1.147	.234	.288	.437	.725
Troy Johnston	4.1	.648	.191	.017	.089	.330	.850	.252	.323	.384	.707
Zac Veen	4.0	.531	.162	.031	.141	.327	1.073	.236	.303	.412	.715
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.563	.173	.011	.120	.250	1.004	.239	.292	.392	.683

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.7	.989	.237	.041	.098	.341	.529	.321	.392	.465	.856
Kyle Teel	4.6	.874	.191	.007	.176	.428	.939	.301	.373	.477	.850
Miguel Vargas	4.5	.721	.240	.012	.211	.470	.592	.297	.377	.522	.899
Munetaka Murakami	4.4	.564	.141	.009	.304	.577	1.144	.269	.373	.553	.925
Andrew Benintendi	4.3	.801	.202	.017	.156	.315	.644	.297	.352	.474	.827
Tristan Peters	4.2	.769	.217	.031	.119	.293	.607	.295	.351	.459	.811
Randal Grichuk	4.1	.710	.233	.016	.204	.196	.636	.301	.341	.528	.869
Colson Montgomery	4.0	.551	.161	.010	.219	.295	1.025	.260	.327	.492	.819
Braden Montgomery	3.9	.680	.192	.034	.117	.294	.714	.290	.352	.463	.815

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections