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1.9% edge · Cincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds
August 17, 2026 · Quinn Mathews vs Kent Emanuel · 77°F
St. Louis Cardinals win
50.0%
Cincinnati Reds win
50.0%
Fair line (home)
-100
Proj. total
9.88
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
St. Louis Cardinals (mean 5.04)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.84)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
9.88
Over
47.9%
Under
52.1%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 50.0% | -113 | +100 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 50.0% | +103 | -100 |
St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Báez | 4.9 | .703 | .192 | .022 | .215 | .316 | 1.262 | .251 | .310 | .447 | .756 |
| Iván Herrera | 4.8 | .838 | .187 | .014 | .171 | .513 | .760 | .294 | .389 | .470 | .859 |
| Jordan Walker | 4.7 | .762 | .222 | .011 | .220 | .355 | 1.047 | .285 | .346 | .497 | .843 |
| Alec Burleson | 4.5 | .831 | .192 | .015 | .209 | .336 | .563 | .299 | .357 | .503 | .861 |
| José Fermín | 4.4 | .729 | .207 | .006 | .102 | .441 | .516 | .265 | .349 | .398 | .747 |
| Masyn Winn | 4.3 | .768 | .196 | .021 | .105 | .324 | .680 | .275 | .337 | .414 | .751 |
| Blaze Jordan | 4.2 | .736 | .211 | .018 | .131 | .234 | .501 | .277 | .322 | .438 | .761 |
| Everson Pereira | 4.1 | .582 | .144 | .008 | .176 | .324 | 1.169 | .243 | .313 | .427 | .740 |
| Pedro Pagés | 4.0 | .625 | .148 | .009 | .136 | .251 | .915 | .247 | .301 | .401 | .703 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | 4.7 | .702 | .205 | .030 | .196 | .563 | 1.185 | .275 | .368 | .483 | .851 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.6 | .701 | .217 | .003 | .186 | .565 | .874 | .276 | .371 | .471 | .842 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 4.5 | .644 | .174 | .005 | .149 | .596 | 1.125 | .252 | .358 | .416 | .773 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.4 | .526 | .151 | .004 | .247 | .492 | 1.266 | .243 | .340 | .478 | .818 |
| Dane Myers | 4.3 | .707 | .163 | .007 | .109 | .442 | 1.031 | .260 | .345 | .393 | .738 |
| Michael Toglia | 4.2 | .474 | .132 | .011 | .178 | .458 | 1.349 | .215 | .306 | .401 | .707 |
| Matt McLain | 4.1 | .545 | .171 | .005 | .127 | .527 | 1.021 | .243 | .350 | .403 | .754 |
| Noelvi Marte | 4.0 | .662 | .166 | .015 | .144 | .314 | .797 | .273 | .338 | .447 | .785 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 3.9 | .654 | .142 | .025 | .087 | .335 | .706 | .261 | .331 | .392 | .723 |
Data notes: home starter Kent Emanuel: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Kent Emanuel: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Quinn Mathews: only 3 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Quinn Mathews: only 21 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections