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0.7% edge · Cincinnati RedsBaltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds
July 4, 2026 · Brandon Young vs Hunter Greene · 93°F
Baltimore Orioles win
45.2%
Cincinnati Reds win
54.8%
Fair line (home)
-121
Proj. total
11.36
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Baltimore Orioles (mean 5.56)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.80)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
11.36
Over
48.9%
Under
42.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 45.2% | +114 | +121 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 54.8% | -123 | -121 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.9 | .665 | .195 | .027 | .296 | .515 | 1.214 | .272 | .356 | .533 | .889 |
| Adley Rutschman | 4.8 | .685 | .178 | .018 | .236 | .579 | .852 | .266 | .359 | .485 | .844 |
| Taylor Ward | 4.7 | .609 | .163 | .008 | .237 | .617 | 1.212 | .253 | .359 | .474 | .833 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.6 | .554 | .162 | .007 | .348 | .473 | 1.159 | .266 | .357 | .569 | .926 |
| Samuel Basallo | 4.5 | .566 | .166 | .011 | .280 | .405 | 1.220 | .253 | .328 | .507 | .835 |
| Colton Cowser | 4.4 | .532 | .145 | .009 | .233 | .465 | 1.438 | .238 | .328 | .461 | .789 |
| Leody Taveras | 4.3 | .655 | .140 | .029 | .145 | .358 | 1.030 | .249 | .316 | .412 | .729 |
| Jackson Holliday | 4.2 | .585 | .136 | .024 | .162 | .459 | 1.062 | .248 | .340 | .432 | .771 |
| Blaze Alexander | 4.0 | .563 | .142 | .017 | .129 | .353 | 1.264 | .236 | .318 | .392 | .711 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | 4.7 | .780 | .218 | .051 | .280 | .425 | 1.091 | .311 | .376 | .582 | .958 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.6 | .781 | .234 | .005 | .258 | .420 | .803 | .306 | .373 | .550 | .923 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.5 | .599 | .214 | .019 | .290 | .494 | .900 | .281 | .362 | .561 | .923 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.4 | .578 | .169 | .004 | .339 | .347 | 1.186 | .273 | .338 | .571 | .909 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 4.3 | .689 | .163 | .011 | .225 | .445 | .933 | .284 | .362 | .509 | .871 |
| Spencer Steer | 4.2 | .619 | .198 | .015 | .209 | .394 | .779 | .277 | .352 | .505 | .857 |
| Jose Trevino | 4.1 | .716 | .176 | .006 | .148 | .220 | .577 | .272 | .315 | .437 | .752 |
| TJ Friedl | 4.0 | .652 | .154 | .012 | .142 | .368 | .669 | .272 | .352 | .444 | .796 |
| Matt McLain | 3.9 | .574 | .172 | .006 | .174 | .356 | .922 | .267 | .341 | .471 | .812 |
Data notes: home starter Hunter Greene: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Hunter Greene: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 93F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections