Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

July 3, 2026 · Trevor Rogers vs Brady Singer · 98°F

0.0% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles win

52.9%

Cincinnati Reds win

47.1%

Fair line (home)

+112

Proj. total

11.54

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 6.10)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.44)

O/U line

10.5

Proj. total

11.54

Over

54.6%

Under

45.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	52.9%	-117	-112
Cincinnati Reds	47.1%	+108	+112

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gunnar Henderson	5.0	.742	.219	.030	.302	.505	1.021	.290	.368	.555	.923
Adley Rutschman	4.9	.769	.203	.020	.226	.544	.727	.281	.365	.493	.858
Taylor Ward	4.8	.684	.202	.011	.236	.596	1.020	.273	.371	.498	.869
Pete Alonso	4.7	.628	.186	.006	.352	.462	.986	.283	.368	.587	.955
Samuel Basallo	4.6	.644	.188	.013	.297	.387	1.052	.275	.342	.542	.884
Dylan Beavers	4.5	.671	.169	.013	.183	.550	.982	.267	.362	.458	.820
Colton Cowser	4.4	.591	.163	.008	.230	.442	1.248	.257	.341	.482	.823
Blaze Alexander	4.3	.660	.163	.018	.141	.357	1.156	.258	.335	.420	.756
Jackson Holliday	4.1	.622	.147	.026	.160	.451	.884	.262	.350	.449	.799

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.7	.757	.222	.032	.240	.414	1.108	.292	.359	.526	.885
Sal Stewart	4.6	.753	.223	.005	.240	.440	.822	.294	.366	.523	.889
Spencer Steer	4.5	.663	.199	.014	.207	.443	.857	.269	.347	.479	.826
Eugenio Suárez	4.4	.568	.168	.003	.322	.374	1.164	.267	.338	.554	.892
Noelvi Marte	4.3	.781	.192	.016	.179	.254	.808	.291	.338	.481	.819
JJ Bleday	4.2	.551	.192	.016	.244	.483	.831	.272	.360	.532	.891
Tyler Stephenson	4.1	.623	.172	.004	.167	.400	.985	.265	.342	.451	.793
Matt McLain	4.0	.601	.174	.004	.165	.399	.932	.267	.347	.458	.805
Edwin Arroyo	3.9	.711	.155	.024	.094	.195	.737	.272	.316	.406	.721

Data notes: game-time temp 98F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections