Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

July 5, 2026 · Kyle Bradish vs Nick Lodolo · 84°F

1.3% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles win

51.2%

Cincinnati Reds win

48.8%

Fair line (home)

+105

Proj. total

10.58

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 5.49)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.09)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

10.58

Over

49.1%

Under

50.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	51.2%	-104	-105
Cincinnati Reds	48.8%	-104	+105

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gunnar Henderson	4.9	.710	.213	.030	.278	.465	1.054	.282	.361	.535	.896
Adley Rutschman	4.8	.738	.198	.013	.205	.483	.751	.270	.350	.466	.816
Taylor Ward	4.7	.661	.182	.009	.226	.566	1.065	.266	.366	.483	.849
Pete Alonso	4.6	.597	.180	.005	.324	.425	1.052	.274	.361	.563	.923
Coby Mayo	4.5	.566	.181	.013	.261	.384	1.239	.254	.330	.501	.830
Tyler O'Neill	4.4	.559	.137	.008	.235	.446	1.213	.244	.334	.468	.802
Leody Taveras	4.3	.681	.149	.024	.132	.310	.926	.252	.312	.404	.716
Jeremiah Jackson	4.1	.654	.189	.011	.175	.188	.928	.263	.304	.452	.755
Blaze Alexander	4.0	.604	.148	.017	.120	.326	1.162	.248	.329	.399	.728

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.7	.732	.202	.045	.218	.461	1.285	.284	.359	.508	.866
Sal Stewart	4.6	.723	.212	.003	.212	.481	.926	.282	.363	.491	.854
JJ Bleday	4.5	.564	.202	.015	.237	.549	1.022	.261	.355	.502	.857
Eugenio Suárez	4.4	.554	.164	.004	.285	.370	1.322	.256	.329	.517	.846
Spencer Steer	4.3	.616	.194	.012	.175	.442	.919	.264	.347	.461	.808
Tyler Stephenson	4.2	.606	.169	.005	.154	.432	1.138	.253	.336	.427	.763
Noelvi Marte	4.1	.716	.177	.018	.141	.260	.880	.280	.331	.449	.780
TJ Friedl	3.9	.614	.141	.012	.119	.403	.764	.255	.345	.405	.750
Edwin Arroyo	3.8	.675	.144	.036	.085	.211	.831	.263	.312	.395	.707

Data notes: home starter Nick Lodolo: only 62 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections