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0.8% edge · Cincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds
July 8, 2026 · Alan Rangel vs Chase Burns · 90°F
Philadelphia Phillies win
42.8%
Cincinnati Reds win
57.2%
Fair line (home)
-134
Proj. total
10.43
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.97)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.45)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
10.43
Over
51.6%
Under
48.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 42.8% | +125 | +134 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 57.2% | -136 | -134 |
Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 4.8 | .640 | .219 | .009 | .299 | .623 | 1.163 | .279 | .375 | .550 | .925 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 4.7 | .424 | .115 | .009 | .390 | .701 | 1.528 | .235 | .356 | .563 | .919 |
| Brandon Marsh | 4.6 | .707 | .193 | .026 | .171 | .425 | 1.397 | .262 | .333 | .444 | .777 |
| Bryson Stott | 4.5 | .714 | .164 | .026 | .155 | .400 | .878 | .259 | .328 | .425 | .753 |
| Alec Bohm | 4.4 | .749 | .184 | .016 | .156 | .313 | .785 | .272 | .328 | .440 | .768 |
| Gabriel Rincones Jr. | 4.3 | .515 | .150 | .009 | .153 | .438 | 1.320 | .216 | .303 | .380 | .684 |
| Justin Crawford | 4.2 | .739 | .162 | .028 | .083 | .314 | .981 | .263 | .322 | .385 | .707 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 4.1 | .595 | .154 | .013 | .156 | .275 | 1.077 | .245 | .305 | .417 | .722 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 4.0 | .605 | .156 | .016 | .145 | .168 | 1.005 | .247 | .287 | .414 | .701 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | 4.7 | .748 | .208 | .046 | .255 | .428 | 1.144 | .297 | .365 | .548 | .913 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.6 | .751 | .224 | .004 | .240 | .447 | .827 | .297 | .370 | .528 | .899 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.5 | .603 | .209 | .017 | .267 | .522 | .899 | .278 | .365 | .543 | .908 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.4 | .560 | .165 | .003 | .318 | .370 | 1.173 | .266 | .337 | .551 | .888 |
| Spencer Steer | 4.3 | .631 | .199 | .013 | .210 | .423 | .823 | .277 | .356 | .502 | .858 |
| Noelvi Marte | 4.2 | .750 | .179 | .020 | .178 | .250 | .805 | .291 | .339 | .485 | .823 |
| Jose Trevino | 4.0 | .698 | .170 | .006 | .136 | .243 | .577 | .267 | .316 | .424 | .740 |
| Edwin Arroyo | 3.9 | .718 | .156 | .032 | .096 | .222 | .762 | .273 | .322 | .412 | .734 |
| TJ Friedl | 3.8 | .624 | .146 | .012 | .126 | .385 | .660 | .270 | .357 | .434 | .790 |
Data notes: away starter Alan Rangel: only 42 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Alan Rangel: only 27 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections