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5.5% edge · Cincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds
July 7, 2026 · Zack Wheeler vs Andrew Abbott · 88°F
Philadelphia Phillies win
54.9%
Cincinnati Reds win
45.1%
Fair line (home)
+122
Proj. total
10.56
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.66)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.90)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
10.56
Over
45.8%
Under
44.2%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 54.9% | -161 | -122 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 45.1% | +147 | +122 |
Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 5.0 | .890 | .204 | .024 | .207 | .369 | .866 | .292 | .349 | .484 | .833 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 4.8 | .473 | .126 | .012 | .447 | .760 | 1.298 | .263 | .385 | .633 | 1.019 |
| Bryce Harper | 4.7 | .661 | .223 | .010 | .325 | .653 | .891 | .301 | .401 | .602 | 1.004 |
| Alec Bohm | 4.6 | .833 | .199 | .017 | .184 | .344 | .646 | .291 | .349 | .476 | .825 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 4.5 | .722 | .193 | .017 | .195 | .204 | .964 | .266 | .308 | .457 | .765 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 4.4 | .673 | .177 | .017 | .182 | .310 | .961 | .260 | .320 | .447 | .767 |
| Bryson Stott | 4.3 | .711 | .168 | .026 | .158 | .393 | .670 | .274 | .344 | .453 | .798 |
| Derek Hill | 4.2 | .628 | .148 | .015 | .153 | .278 | 1.146 | .244 | .302 | .409 | .711 |
| Justin Crawford | 4.1 | .749 | .162 | .025 | .094 | .310 | .774 | .277 | .336 | .409 | .745 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | 4.7 | .719 | .207 | .047 | .212 | .386 | 1.346 | .279 | .345 | .499 | .843 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.6 | .741 | .215 | .004 | .201 | .381 | 1.012 | .281 | .347 | .480 | .827 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.5 | .575 | .202 | .015 | .237 | .442 | 1.102 | .258 | .336 | .495 | .831 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.3 | .546 | .155 | .004 | .267 | .321 | 1.398 | .246 | .315 | .491 | .806 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 4.2 | .651 | .156 | .013 | .181 | .425 | 1.120 | .265 | .344 | .456 | .800 |
| Spencer Steer | 4.1 | .592 | .185 | .010 | .165 | .361 | .962 | .256 | .330 | .444 | .773 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 4.0 | .579 | .173 | .004 | .144 | .364 | 1.177 | .248 | .324 | .418 | .741 |
| TJ Friedl | 3.9 | .624 | .145 | .015 | .104 | .347 | .813 | .254 | .336 | .394 | .729 |
| Matt McLain | 3.8 | .532 | .161 | .004 | .139 | .333 | 1.090 | .245 | .320 | .416 | .737 |
Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections