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1.9% edge · Cincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds
July 9, 2026 · Jesús Luzardo vs Brady Singer · 86°F
Philadelphia Phillies win
57.7%
Cincinnati Reds win
42.3%
Fair line (home)
+136
Proj. total
10.68
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.88)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.81)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
10.68
Over
46.1%
Under
43.8%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 57.7% | -155 | -136 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 42.3% | +143 | +136 |
Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 5.0 | .912 | .216 | .025 | .201 | .343 | .895 | .293 | .347 | .481 | .829 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 4.9 | .487 | .132 | .010 | .427 | .746 | 1.331 | .259 | .381 | .609 | .991 |
| Bryce Harper | 4.8 | .682 | .238 | .009 | .318 | .637 | .933 | .304 | .402 | .598 | 1 |
| Brandon Marsh | 4.7 | .777 | .210 | .027 | .181 | .444 | 1.197 | .284 | .357 | .477 | .834 |
| Alec Bohm | 4.6 | .834 | .208 | .017 | .174 | .320 | .655 | .293 | .350 | .475 | .825 |
| Bryson Stott | 4.5 | .760 | .185 | .026 | .160 | .408 | .673 | .282 | .353 | .461 | .814 |
| Gabriel Rincones Jr. | 4.3 | .555 | .160 | .012 | .167 | .459 | 1.133 | .233 | .324 | .411 | .735 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 4.2 | .665 | .172 | .014 | .159 | .298 | .928 | .261 | .326 | .436 | .762 |
| Justin Crawford | 4.1 | .768 | .173 | .028 | .083 | .310 | .788 | .278 | .338 | .404 | .742 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | 4.7 | .718 | .210 | .033 | .210 | .405 | 1.316 | .276 | .344 | .489 | .833 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.6 | .711 | .216 | .004 | .211 | .429 | 1.002 | .278 | .350 | .487 | .837 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.5 | .551 | .197 | .015 | .231 | .505 | 1.075 | .253 | .341 | .486 | .827 |
| Spencer Steer | 4.3 | .617 | .191 | .013 | .171 | .434 | .993 | .256 | .337 | .444 | .781 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.2 | .523 | .150 | .004 | .260 | .356 | 1.345 | .244 | .317 | .489 | .806 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 4.1 | .593 | .159 | .004 | .147 | .413 | 1.184 | .245 | .327 | .409 | .736 |
| Noelvi Marte | 4.0 | .704 | .168 | .017 | .141 | .238 | .942 | .273 | .322 | .439 | .761 |
| Edwin Arroyo | 3.9 | .696 | .156 | .024 | .084 | .199 | .894 | .261 | .307 | .385 | .692 |
| TJ Friedl | 3.8 | .606 | .139 | .011 | .111 | .365 | .770 | .258 | .343 | .405 | .748 |
Data notes: game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections