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0.9% edge · Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds
July 10, 2026 · Shota Imanaga vs Hunter Greene · 85°F
Chicago Cubs win
50.5%
Cincinnati Reds win
49.5%
Fair line (home)
+102
Proj. total
10.59
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Chicago Cubs (mean 5.48)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.11)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
10.59
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 50.5% | -110 | -102 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 49.5% | +102 | +102 |
Chicago Cubs — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 4.9 | .652 | .186 | .041 | .304 | .384 | 1.315 | .264 | .334 | .528 | .862 |
| Alex Bregman | 4.8 | .682 | .179 | .009 | .228 | .568 | .793 | .262 | .359 | .472 | .831 |
| Michael Busch | 4.7 | .565 | .172 | .028 | .267 | .584 | 1.229 | .254 | .358 | .507 | .865 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 4.6 | .616 | .176 | .014 | .263 | .511 | 1.266 | .263 | .350 | .508 | .858 |
| Ian Happ | 4.5 | .518 | .149 | .014 | .212 | .594 | 1.298 | .231 | .341 | .442 | .783 |
| Nico Hoerner | 4.4 | .841 | .189 | .012 | .083 | .349 | .465 | .283 | .351 | .399 | .750 |
| Michael Conforto | 4.3 | .508 | .149 | .007 | .203 | .495 | 1.198 | .233 | .331 | .440 | .771 |
| Carson Kelly | 4.2 | .600 | .135 | .008 | .180 | .444 | .874 | .251 | .340 | .440 | .780 |
| Dansby Swanson | 4.0 | .552 | .124 | .022 | .197 | .390 | 1.068 | .246 | .323 | .454 | .777 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | 4.6 | .690 | .189 | .030 | .278 | .348 | 1.190 | .281 | .340 | .537 | .877 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.5 | .678 | .211 | .003 | .274 | .357 | .894 | .284 | .345 | .537 | .882 |
| Spencer Steer | 4.4 | .619 | .177 | .013 | .234 | .376 | .926 | .263 | .334 | .491 | .825 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.3 | .532 | .180 | .016 | .287 | .444 | .922 | .266 | .345 | .547 | .892 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.2 | .504 | .148 | .004 | .325 | .302 | 1.238 | .256 | .318 | .551 | .869 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 4.1 | .595 | .161 | .005 | .195 | .351 | 1.067 | .259 | .327 | .463 | .790 |
| Noelvi Marte | 4.0 | .648 | .169 | .013 | .211 | .200 | .832 | .278 | .320 | .500 | .820 |
| Edwin Arroyo | 3.9 | .650 | .143 | .028 | .090 | .169 | .797 | .250 | .292 | .379 | .671 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 3.7 | .626 | .140 | .021 | .121 | .224 | .689 | .261 | .310 | .417 | .727 |
Data notes: home starter Hunter Greene: only 14 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Hunter Greene: only 6 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections