Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

July 11, 2026 · Javier Assad vs Nick Lodolo · 77°F

1.7% edge · Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs win

50.2%

Cincinnati Reds win

49.8%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

10.55

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 5.40)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.14)

O/U line

Proj. total

10.55

Over

44.8%

Under

48.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	50.2%	+102	-101
Cincinnati Reds	49.8%	-110	+101

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	5.0	.717	.199	.042	.282	.343	1.179	.276	.342	.527	.870
Seiya Suzuki	4.8	.695	.192	.016	.251	.507	1.216	.270	.354	.497	.852
Alex Bregman	4.7	.722	.192	.009	.191	.503	.676	.270	.362	.460	.822
Carson Kelly	4.6	.707	.159	.010	.178	.446	.883	.257	.340	.431	.772
Michael Busch	4.5	.579	.165	.027	.232	.522	1.075	.258	.361	.494	.855
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.884	.197	.013	.077	.311	.396	.293	.357	.406	.763
Ian Happ	4.3	.552	.162	.012	.180	.492	1.133	.244	.344	.439	.784
Dansby Swanson	4.2	.601	.143	.022	.184	.372	1.025	.252	.325	.448	.773
Miguel Amaya	4.1	.586	.161	.007	.134	.338	.862	.246	.330	.405	.735

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.7	.741	.207	.047	.223	.469	1.120	.290	.366	.520	.886
Sal Stewart	4.6	.728	.220	.003	.226	.452	.833	.286	.362	.506	.868
JJ Bleday	4.5	.572	.199	.020	.230	.562	.881	.262	.359	.500	.859
Spencer Steer	4.4	.627	.191	.013	.192	.464	.835	.265	.351	.470	.821
Nathaniel Lowe	4.3	.653	.153	.012	.180	.513	.956	.267	.360	.460	.819
Eugenio Suárez	4.2	.509	.148	.003	.265	.379	1.161	.248	.326	.502	.828
Jose Trevino	4.1	.692	.167	.006	.128	.253	.571	.262	.313	.411	.724
Edwin Arroyo	4.0	.710	.146	.040	.076	.218	.735	.264	.314	.387	.701
TJ Friedl	3.8	.595	.138	.015	.123	.394	.673	.259	.348	.419	.767

Data notes: home starter Nick Lodolo: only 65 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections