Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

July 12, 2026 · Matthew Boyd vs Andrew Abbott · 81°F

0.3% edge · Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs win

54.7%

Cincinnati Reds win

45.3%

Fair line (home)

+121

Proj. total

10.44

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 5.61)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.83)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

10.44

Over

48.8%

Under

51.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	54.7%	-125	-121
Cincinnati Reds	45.3%	+115	+121

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	5.0	.716	.204	.041	.318	.376	1.127	.283	.345	.558	.903
Seiya Suzuki	4.8	.685	.189	.017	.278	.546	1.143	.274	.360	.522	.882
Alex Bregman	4.7	.701	.179	.013	.219	.550	.629	.269	.361	.478	.840
Carson Kelly	4.6	.705	.152	.011	.201	.474	.839	.261	.343	.451	.793
Michael Busch	4.5	.592	.164	.029	.249	.552	1.016	.265	.363	.513	.876
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.874	.207	.011	.082	.332	.380	.292	.353	.410	.762
Ian Happ	4.3	.528	.162	.012	.215	.521	1.082	.246	.344	.469	.813
Dansby Swanson	4.2	.590	.148	.021	.206	.400	.961	.256	.330	.470	.800
Kevin Alcántara	4.1	.559	.151	.005	.173	.339	1.241	.239	.306	.422	.728

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.6	.693	.190	.035	.224	.405	1.206	.272	.341	.494	.834
Sal Stewart	4.5	.691	.212	.002	.236	.413	.888	.280	.351	.506	.857
Spencer Steer	4.4	.612	.176	.012	.204	.429	.938	.255	.337	.462	.799
JJ Bleday	4.3	.528	.181	.016	.234	.496	.918	.253	.343	.494	.837
Eugenio Suárez	4.2	.494	.142	.003	.277	.351	1.249	.241	.316	.499	.815
Tyler Stephenson	4.1	.593	.171	.004	.170	.399	1.048	.255	.334	.443	.776
Noelvi Marte	4.0	.662	.163	.014	.172	.243	.819	.272	.322	.462	.784
Edwin Arroyo	3.9	.678	.139	.028	.071	.199	.769	.252	.302	.365	.667
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.8	.651	.142	.023	.101	.244	.707	.263	.317	.404	.721

Data notes: away starter Matthew Boyd: only 43 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections