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0.6% edge · Cincinnati RedsCleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds
July 27, 2026 · Slade Cecconi vs Chase Burns · 90°F
Cleveland Guardians win
39.9%
Cincinnati Reds win
60.1%
Fair line (home)
-151
Proj. total
10.25
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.71)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.54)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
10.25
Over
61.2%
Under
38.8%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 39.9% | +142 | +151 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 60.1% | -154 | -151 |
Cleveland Guardians — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 4.8 | .842 | .178 | .024 | .101 | .529 | .566 | .269 | .353 | .393 | .745 |
| José Ramírez | 4.7 | .695 | .209 | .015 | .272 | .484 | .692 | .285 | .363 | .536 | .899 |
| Chase DeLauter | 4.6 | .743 | .212 | .015 | .217 | .444 | .808 | .287 | .358 | .503 | .862 |
| Travis Bazzana | 4.5 | .584 | .185 | .021 | .140 | .544 | 1.196 | .237 | .335 | .402 | .738 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 4.4 | .672 | .172 | .026 | .126 | .387 | .859 | .253 | .328 | .405 | .733 |
| Kyle Manzardo | 4.3 | .472 | .144 | .012 | .254 | .457 | 1.236 | .233 | .322 | .479 | .802 |
| Gabriel Arias | 4.2 | .534 | .161 | .015 | .177 | .274 | 1.460 | .230 | .287 | .417 | .704 |
| Patrick Bailey | 4.1 | .560 | .127 | .020 | .115 | .330 | 1.192 | .222 | .290 | .360 | .650 |
| Petey Halpin | 3.9 | .539 | .131 | .027 | .104 | .272 | 1.187 | .220 | .277 | .357 | .634 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | 4.7 | .735 | .206 | .048 | .271 | .411 | 1.152 | .297 | .364 | .560 | .923 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.6 | .722 | .229 | .003 | .278 | .392 | .841 | .298 | .363 | .556 | .919 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.5 | .576 | .191 | .017 | .284 | .485 | .902 | .271 | .354 | .544 | .898 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.3 | .555 | .159 | .003 | .342 | .336 | 1.220 | .268 | .335 | .569 | .904 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 4.2 | .680 | .165 | .011 | .210 | .446 | .961 | .282 | .361 | .499 | .860 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 4.1 | .635 | .174 | .005 | .188 | .389 | 1.024 | .269 | .344 | .470 | .814 |
| Dane Myers | 4.0 | .701 | .151 | .008 | .149 | .294 | .975 | .273 | .334 | .440 | .774 |
| Edwin Arroyo | 3.9 | .727 | .154 | .040 | .092 | .194 | .747 | .275 | .319 | .414 | .734 |
| TJ Friedl | 3.8 | .608 | .131 | .018 | .137 | .338 | .698 | .263 | .342 | .433 | .776 |
Data notes: game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections