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7.0% edge · Cincinnati RedsCleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds
July 28, 2026 · Gavin Williams vs Caleb Ferguson · 85°F
Cleveland Guardians win
50.1%
Cincinnati Reds win
49.9%
Fair line (home)
+101
Proj. total
9.61
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.91)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.70)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.61
Over
45.6%
Under
43.6%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 50.1% | -140 | -101 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 49.9% | +129 | +101 |
Cleveland Guardians — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 4.9 | .894 | .180 | .023 | .091 | .592 | .481 | .278 | .370 | .394 | .764 |
| José Ramírez | 4.8 | .717 | .215 | .012 | .246 | .544 | .587 | .283 | .371 | .515 | .886 |
| Chase DeLauter | 4.7 | .779 | .217 | .015 | .195 | .505 | .695 | .290 | .370 | .490 | .861 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 4.6 | .504 | .157 | .008 | .215 | .630 | 1.304 | .227 | .343 | .437 | .780 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 4.5 | .712 | .185 | .023 | .117 | .410 | .754 | .260 | .341 | .407 | .748 |
| Travis Bazzana | 4.4 | .581 | .185 | .023 | .119 | .597 | 1.027 | .244 | .355 | .402 | .757 |
| Gabriel Arias | 4.3 | .587 | .163 | .018 | .164 | .315 | 1.344 | .239 | .303 | .417 | .720 |
| Austin Hedges | 4.2 | .579 | .119 | .005 | .127 | .392 | .945 | .224 | .305 | .361 | .666 |
| Petey Halpin | 4.0 | .576 | .141 | .030 | .096 | .318 | 1.086 | .229 | .294 | .362 | .656 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | 4.7 | .661 | .178 | .041 | .225 | .514 | 1.338 | .268 | .353 | .496 | .849 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.5 | .672 | .203 | .003 | .217 | .480 | 1.011 | .272 | .354 | .485 | .839 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.4 | .529 | .176 | .017 | .232 | .583 | 1.074 | .249 | .351 | .485 | .836 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 4.3 | .634 | .150 | .009 | .183 | .547 | 1.162 | .260 | .357 | .451 | .808 |
| Dane Myers | 4.2 | .670 | .146 | .007 | .130 | .377 | 1.184 | .251 | .325 | .396 | .721 |
| Noelvi Marte | 4.1 | .674 | .169 | .012 | .175 | .288 | .987 | .271 | .328 | .460 | .787 |
| Ivan Johnson | 4.0 | .521 | .143 | .011 | .127 | .362 | 1.328 | .222 | .301 | .374 | .675 |
| Jose Trevino | 3.9 | .642 | .168 | .004 | .130 | .251 | .691 | .261 | .312 | .417 | .729 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 3.8 | .635 | .138 | .024 | .093 | .288 | .794 | .257 | .319 | .391 | .711 |
Data notes: home starter Caleb Ferguson: only 53 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Caleb Ferguson: only 41 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections