Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

July 30, 2026 · Yohan Ramírez vs Rhett Lowder · 84°F

4.2% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates win

47.2%

Cincinnati Reds win

52.8%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

10.33

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 5.13)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.20)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

10.33

Over

51.5%

Under

48.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	47.2%	-110	+112
Cincinnati Reds	52.8%	+102	-112

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.9	1.025	.213	.015	.065	.274	.811	.288	.336	.383	.719
Brandon Lowe	4.8	.636	.187	.010	.298	.452	1.179	.263	.337	.518	.856
Bryan Reynolds	4.7	.734	.185	.021	.203	.511	1.050	.279	.366	.482	.848
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.6	.636	.165	.012	.243	.471	1.221	.261	.345	.487	.832
Ryan O'Hearn	4.5	.758	.177	.010	.205	.429	.815	.288	.363	.491	.854
Nick Gonzales	4.4	.803	.205	.025	.102	.330	.782	.286	.349	.427	.776
Endy Rodríguez	4.3	.596	.176	.010	.138	.457	.943	.245	.331	.407	.738
Jacob Gonzalez	4.1	.615	.152	.010	.138	.350	.801	.245	.316	.402	.718
Jhostynxon Garcia	4.0	.620	.147	.013	.136	.279	1.059	.247	.306	.404	.710

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.8	.710	.200	.038	.208	.534	1.240	.278	.366	.494	.860
Sal Stewart	4.6	.686	.220	.003	.212	.514	.918	.275	.364	.487	.851
JJ Bleday	4.5	.550	.186	.017	.221	.630	.977	.253	.363	.482	.845
Tyler Stephenson	4.4	.640	.176	.005	.158	.520	1.154	.255	.352	.428	.780
Nathaniel Lowe	4.3	.635	.154	.008	.173	.570	1.044	.262	.366	.449	.815
Eugenio Suárez	4.2	.493	.138	.003	.245	.422	1.259	.238	.331	.477	.807
Dane Myers	4.1	.677	.152	.006	.117	.370	1.017	.260	.338	.401	.739
Noelvi Marte	4.0	.667	.165	.014	.158	.287	.838	.275	.335	.457	.792
Matt McLain	3.9	.521	.157	.004	.135	.455	1.020	.243	.344	.413	.757

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections