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2.4% edge · Cincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds
July 31, 2026 · Paul Skenes vs Hunter Greene · 87°F
Pittsburgh Pirates win
50.7%
Cincinnati Reds win
49.3%
Fair line (home)
+103
Proj. total
9.36
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.87)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.49)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
9.36
Over
53.1%
Under
39.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.7% | -118 | -103 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 49.3% | +109 | +103 |
Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Mangum | 4.8 | .939 | .201 | .011 | .074 | .273 | .994 | .273 | .324 | .372 | .695 |
| Brandon Lowe | 4.7 | .546 | .167 | .011 | .333 | .428 | 1.372 | .249 | .324 | .529 | .853 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 4.6 | .635 | .170 | .017 | .218 | .480 | 1.268 | .256 | .344 | .467 | .811 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | 4.5 | .539 | .153 | .011 | .258 | .442 | 1.428 | .240 | .323 | .476 | .799 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 4.4 | .686 | .153 | .009 | .228 | .403 | .985 | .273 | .347 | .490 | .838 |
| Nick Gonzales | 4.3 | .747 | .185 | .024 | .112 | .316 | .952 | .273 | .337 | .418 | .755 |
| Endy Rodríguez | 4.2 | .539 | .158 | .010 | .148 | .442 | 1.110 | .231 | .319 | .399 | .717 |
| Jacob Gonzalez | 4.1 | .554 | .136 | .007 | .158 | .341 | .958 | .233 | .306 | .402 | .708 |
| Henry Davis | 4.0 | .455 | .125 | .004 | .192 | .352 | 1.093 | .220 | .304 | .422 | .726 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | 4.6 | .668 | .184 | .038 | .196 | .404 | 1.423 | .262 | .332 | .466 | .798 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.5 | .665 | .214 | .003 | .191 | .383 | 1.087 | .264 | .333 | .460 | .793 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.4 | .530 | .179 | .017 | .210 | .482 | 1.141 | .242 | .330 | .460 | .790 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 4.3 | .588 | .164 | .005 | .141 | .392 | 1.315 | .234 | .313 | .391 | .703 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 4.2 | .618 | .148 | .011 | .158 | .451 | 1.198 | .253 | .338 | .427 | .764 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.1 | .475 | .138 | .003 | .233 | .324 | 1.391 | .230 | .305 | .459 | .764 |
| Dane Myers | 4.0 | .648 | .144 | .006 | .112 | .292 | 1.150 | .252 | .316 | .388 | .703 |
| Noelvi Marte | 3.8 | .636 | .158 | .014 | .147 | .222 | .953 | .267 | .316 | .442 | .757 |
| Matt McLain | 3.7 | .496 | .149 | .005 | .120 | .357 | 1.146 | .232 | .315 | .389 | .704 |
Data notes: home starter Hunter Greene: only 56 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Hunter Greene: only 38 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections