Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

August 1, 2026 · Braxton Ashcraft vs Andrew Abbott · 78°F

3.5% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates win

49.4%

Cincinnati Reds win

50.6%

Fair line (home)

-102

Proj. total

9.77

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 5.01)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.76)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.77

Over

58.0%

Under

34.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	49.4%	-117	+102
Cincinnati Reds	50.6%	+108	-102

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.9	.993	.221	.010	.065	.229	.826	.280	.321	.374	.696
Brandon Lowe	4.8	.617	.184	.009	.322	.442	1.156	.264	.336	.536	.872
Bryan Reynolds	4.7	.714	.182	.015	.211	.464	1.083	.271	.352	.475	.826
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.5	.579	.166	.013	.267	.462	1.255	.253	.335	.499	.835
Nick Gonzales	4.4	.806	.201	.025	.106	.324	.818	.279	.339	.418	.757
Marcell Ozuna	4.3	.584	.133	.005	.238	.540	1.075	.255	.351	.481	.832
Jared Triolo	4.2	.647	.169	.012	.098	.469	.935	.248	.338	.379	.716
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.1	.595	.150	.015	.138	.401	1.117	.243	.321	.404	.725
Henry Davis	4.0	.503	.141	.006	.180	.357	.951	.232	.310	.426	.736

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.7	.728	.202	.048	.191	.435	1.246	.279	.353	.487	.840
Sal Stewart	4.5	.703	.228	.004	.197	.411	.935	.276	.347	.477	.823
JJ Bleday	4.4	.563	.198	.016	.211	.521	.999	.254	.346	.476	.822
Nathaniel Lowe	4.3	.666	.162	.012	.167	.487	1.101	.264	.350	.443	.793
Noelvi Marte	4.2	.727	.179	.017	.165	.256	.925	.276	.325	.455	.781
Eugenio Suárez	4.1	.511	.147	.003	.232	.354	1.279	.241	.319	.470	.789
Jose Trevino	4.0	.693	.166	.004	.105	.226	.639	.258	.306	.389	.695
TJ Friedl	3.9	.611	.138	.017	.107	.372	.759	.254	.341	.397	.738
Matt McLain	3.8	.523	.161	.004	.126	.372	1.032	.242	.325	.404	.729

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections