Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

August 2, 2026 · Mitch Keller vs Chase Burns · 73°F

3.2% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates win

40.9%

Cincinnati Reds win

59.1%

Fair line (home)

-144

Proj. total

9.44

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.37)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.07)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.44

Over

54.9%

Under

45.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	40.9%	+122	+144
Cincinnati Reds	59.1%	-133	-144

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.8	.929	.206	.013	.057	.251	1.000	.268	.313	.358	.671
Brandon Lowe	4.7	.581	.163	.009	.275	.412	1.370	.243	.314	.481	.795
Bryan Reynolds	4.6	.637	.163	.019	.194	.475	1.247	.251	.337	.446	.783
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.5	.545	.153	.011	.214	.454	1.440	.233	.317	.439	.755
Spencer Horwitz	4.3	.632	.195	.009	.157	.552	.872	.265	.365	.447	.812
Nick Gonzales	4.2	.731	.186	.023	.091	.297	.945	.264	.322	.393	.715
Endy Rodríguez	4.1	.554	.161	.007	.123	.431	1.104	.230	.314	.377	.692
Jacob Gonzalez	4.0	.554	.143	.007	.134	.316	.932	.228	.295	.380	.676
Jhostynxon Garcia	3.9	.541	.128	.012	.124	.262	1.220	.223	.281	.368	.649

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.7	.743	.207	.044	.223	.466	1.129	.291	.367	.521	.888
Sal Stewart	4.6	.731	.218	.003	.213	.433	.835	.284	.358	.494	.853
JJ Bleday	4.5	.577	.198	.016	.223	.537	.898	.261	.355	.491	.846
Tyler Stephenson	4.4	.656	.182	.005	.160	.451	1.074	.260	.345	.435	.779
Nathaniel Lowe	4.3	.670	.161	.009	.166	.498	.959	.270	.361	.453	.814
Dane Myers	4.2	.694	.158	.009	.121	.347	.967	.262	.335	.406	.740
Noelvi Marte	4.0	.698	.181	.016	.169	.247	.799	.284	.335	.475	.811
Matt McLain	3.9	.573	.164	.006	.140	.412	.958	.255	.343	.427	.770
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.8	.681	.146	.021	.096	.254	.671	.268	.324	.403	.728

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections