Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

August 15, 2026 · Ryan Gusto vs Brady Singer · 88°F

1.6% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Miami Marlins win

48.1%

Cincinnati Reds win

51.9%

Fair line (home)

-108

Proj. total

10.46

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 5.27)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.19)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

10.46

Over

53.3%

Under

46.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	48.1%	-103	+108
Cincinnati Reds	51.9%	-105	-108

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jakob Marsee	4.9	.680	.177	.041	.153	.567	1.076	.246	.346	.415	.761
Xavier Edwards	4.8	1.033	.157	.065	.071	.477	.617	.308	.381	.425	.805
Heriberto Hernández	4.7	.622	.173	.021	.271	.467	1.212	.261	.342	.507	.849
Griffin Conine	4.6	.605	.163	.012	.268	.416	1.402	.255	.332	.496	.828
Otto Lopez	4.5	.887	.207	.036	.142	.299	.617	.308	.360	.479	.839
Owen Caissie	4.4	.573	.182	.011	.236	.394	1.431	.255	.329	.487	.816
Joe Mack	4.3	.602	.154	.008	.199	.368	1.061	.250	.322	.448	.770
Graham Pauley	4.2	.544	.186	.011	.157	.359	.938	.239	.313	.420	.733
Esteury Ruiz	4.0	.589	.166	.023	.133	.344	.977	.253	.334	.423	.758

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.7	.699	.199	.044	.238	.490	1.185	.283	.364	.523	.887
Sal Stewart	4.6	.704	.230	.003	.230	.461	.867	.286	.363	.512	.875
JJ Bleday	4.5	.558	.191	.016	.249	.558	.933	.261	.358	.511	.868
Tyler Stephenson	4.4	.634	.181	.005	.170	.473	1.107	.257	.343	.438	.781
Eugenio Suárez	4.3	.512	.156	.003	.281	.386	1.242	.250	.329	.513	.842
Dane Myers	4.2	.686	.154	.007	.138	.351	1.025	.262	.333	.417	.750
Noelvi Marte	4.0	.675	.177	.014	.182	.257	.838	.279	.330	.479	.809
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.9	.673	.147	.025	.100	.286	.717	.262	.321	.399	.720
Matt McLain	3.8	.512	.160	.004	.144	.414	.982	.245	.335	.424	.759

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections