Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

August 14, 2026 · Sandy Alcantara vs Chase Burns · 81°F

6.7% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Miami Marlins win

41.4%

Cincinnati Reds win

58.6%

Fair line (home)

-142

Proj. total

9.56

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.47)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.09)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.56

Over

55.8%

Under

36.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	41.4%	+104	+142
Cincinnati Reds	58.6%	-112	-142

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jakob Marsee	4.8	.604	.148	.040	.125	.593	1.249	.221	.326	.367	.693
Xavier Edwards	4.7	.918	.139	.057	.063	.488	.742	.283	.361	.389	.749
Otto Lopez	4.6	.847	.199	.033	.139	.320	.783	.289	.343	.450	.793
Griffin Conine	4.5	.534	.148	.011	.223	.429	1.570	.230	.310	.440	.750
Heriberto Hernández	4.3	.518	.147	.017	.229	.453	1.301	.236	.321	.461	.782
Javier Sanoja	4.3	.711	.218	.030	.098	.282	.531	.268	.320	.413	.732
Owen Caissie	4.1	.494	.158	.011	.202	.374	1.538	.231	.306	.442	.748
Joe Mack	4.0	.508	.134	.009	.172	.333	1.204	.225	.295	.407	.702
Graham Pauley	3.9	.469	.157	.011	.134	.355	1.035	.218	.295	.383	.678

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.6	.768	.217	.050	.215	.416	1.100	.298	.366	.527	.893
Sal Stewart	4.5	.732	.239	.004	.213	.390	.815	.289	.356	.505	.862
JJ Bleday	4.4	.602	.196	.015	.228	.492	.883	.267	.352	.500	.852
Tyler Stephenson	4.3	.675	.187	.005	.159	.398	1.044	.265	.340	.440	.779
Eugenio Suárez	4.2	.534	.167	.003	.264	.337	1.166	.254	.326	.508	.834
Michael Toglia	4.1	.504	.144	.014	.213	.376	1.263	.236	.310	.455	.765
Dane Myers	4.0	.705	.153	.007	.116	.300	.928	.269	.333	.410	.743
Noelvi Marte	3.9	.678	.176	.017	.164	.213	.757	.284	.330	.477	.807
Matt McLain	3.8	.550	.160	.004	.136	.375	.929	.254	.337	.426	.764

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections