Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

August 16, 2026 · Eury Pérez vs Nick Lodolo · 88°F

3.8% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Miami Marlins win

48.9%

Cincinnati Reds win

51.1%

Fair line (home)

-105

Proj. total

9.64

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.85)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.80)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.64

Over

55.9%

Under

44.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	48.9%	-116	+105
Cincinnati Reds	51.1%	+107	-105

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.9	.959	.227	.042	.148	.312	.708	.306	.358	.473	.831
Heriberto Hernández	4.8	.630	.174	.018	.265	.468	1.266	.257	.341	.495	.836
Agustín Ramírez	4.7	.644	.205	.013	.220	.351	.989	.256	.325	.467	.791
Xavier Edwards	4.5	.970	.149	.046	.067	.411	.620	.301	.370	.409	.779
Javier Sanoja	4.5	.780	.230	.034	.102	.265	.471	.277	.326	.423	.750
Leo Jiménez	4.3	.674	.182	.009	.112	.338	.935	.256	.345	.396	.741
Esteury Ruiz	4.2	.620	.174	.024	.134	.354	1.062	.254	.338	.420	.758
Jakob Marsee	4.1	.556	.132	.035	.118	.466	.959	.236	.339	.393	.732
Brian Navarreto	4.0	.552	.145	.013	.119	.237	1.021	.223	.280	.366	.646

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.6	.633	.188	.041	.232	.483	1.364	.267	.348	.502	.850
Sal Stewart	4.5	.630	.201	.002	.242	.458	1.020	.268	.348	.501	.849
JJ Bleday	4.4	.496	.171	.014	.255	.582	1.067	.247	.351	.502	.852
Eugenio Suárez	4.3	.465	.142	.002	.299	.389	1.426	.236	.316	.507	.824
Michael Toglia	4.2	.432	.128	.011	.234	.429	1.496	.216	.300	.444	.744
Matt McLain	4.1	.520	.157	.006	.161	.439	1.213	.235	.325	.416	.741
Jose Trevino	4.0	.631	.160	.004	.141	.251	.713	.253	.305	.413	.718
TJ Friedl	3.9	.560	.129	.015	.130	.406	.815	.248	.342	.410	.752
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.7	.604	.137	.021	.101	.272	.800	.251	.312	.392	.703

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections