St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

August 19, 2026 · Matthew Liberatore vs Chase Burns · 78°F

4.0% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

46.5%

Cincinnati Reds win

53.5%

Fair line (home)

-115

Proj. total

9.71

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.82)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.89)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.71

Over

56.8%

Under

43.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	46.5%	+131	+115
Cincinnati Reds	53.5%	-142	-115

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Matthew Liberatore LHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.8	5.1	5.1	1.8	2.6
Chase Burns RHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.2	5.4	5.2	1.8	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Matthew Liberatore4+ 76%6+ 40%8+ 13%

Chase Burns4+ 80%6+ 45%8+ 16%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.8	.731	.169	.008	.198	.526	.937	.261	.352	.445	.796
Iván Herrera	4.7	.717	.168	.010	.193	.511	1.034	.264	.359	.450	.809
Alec Burleson	4.6	.757	.199	.010	.243	.371	.840	.287	.348	.511	.860
Jordan Walker	4.5	.662	.191	.007	.228	.355	1.254	.264	.327	.479	.805
Nathan Church	4.4	.726	.153	.021	.141	.268	.856	.253	.305	.404	.709
Masyn Winn	4.3	.688	.169	.015	.112	.342	.952	.251	.317	.388	.705
Bryan Torres	4.2	.725	.136	.024	.073	.439	.915	.257	.339	.366	.704
Blaze Jordan	4.1	.634	.175	.030	.155	.219	.670	.260	.304	.443	.747
Jimmy Crooks	4.0	.514	.130	.008	.168	.296	1.273	.227	.293	.407	.700

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.6	.718	.200	.043	.208	.427	1.137	.280	.353	.499	.851
Sal Stewart	4.5	.715	.210	.004	.252	.405	.878	.289	.359	.527	.886
Dane Myers	4.4	.758	.160	.006	.131	.361	1.044	.264	.332	.405	.738
Eugenio Suárez	4.3	.526	.155	.003	.276	.373	1.258	.248	.325	.504	.830
Tyler Stephenson	4.2	.619	.183	.005	.158	.429	1.057	.259	.341	.438	.779
Michael Toglia	4.1	.493	.150	.009	.194	.352	1.265	.228	.299	.430	.729
JJ Bleday	4.0	.497	.174	.015	.212	.486	.817	.258	.352	.500	.852
Jose Trevino	3.9	.659	.153	.005	.137	.212	.594	.263	.308	.421	.729
Matt McLain	3.8	.532	.157	.004	.133	.377	.967	.248	.333	.417	.751

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections