St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

August 18, 2026 · Kyle Leahy vs Andrew Abbott · 82°F

1.4% edge · Cincinnati Reds

St. Louis Cardinals win

50.2%

Cincinnati Reds win

49.8%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

10.9

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 5.57)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.33)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.9

Over

57.0%

Under

33.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	50.2%	-111	-101
Cincinnati Reds	49.8%	+102	+101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kyle Leahy RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.7	4.3	5.4	2.0	2.8
Andrew Abbott LHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.1	3.9	5.8	1.8	3.0

Strikeout ladder

Kyle Leahy4+ 59%6+ 28%8+ 9%

Andrew Abbott4+ 53%6+ 21%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.9	.829	.185	.007	.228	.501	.744	.287	.370	.490	.860
Iván Herrera	4.8	.779	.177	.013	.226	.573	.818	.288	.387	.500	.887
Jordan Walker	4.7	.716	.206	.009	.283	.386	1.146	.282	.346	.532	.878
Alec Burleson	4.6	.779	.190	.012	.262	.368	.620	.295	.356	.533	.889
Joshua Báez	4.5	.594	.157	.019	.256	.322	1.238	.249	.310	.482	.791
Blaze Jordan	4.4	.722	.214	.016	.176	.266	.556	.276	.323	.464	.788
Masyn Winn	4.3	.722	.186	.017	.137	.340	.720	.272	.336	.434	.770
José Fermín	4.2	.658	.186	.007	.126	.448	.516	.267	.354	.424	.778
Pedro Pagés	4.0	.591	.143	.008	.167	.278	.991	.243	.300	.420	.721

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.8	.767	.220	.049	.225	.482	1.099	.298	.374	.532	.906
Sal Stewart	4.6	.744	.235	.003	.224	.463	.787	.292	.368	.512	.880
JJ Bleday	4.5	.604	.202	.016	.237	.571	.852	.270	.366	.510	.876
Eugenio Suárez	4.4	.569	.171	.004	.274	.403	1.184	.258	.337	.512	.849
Tyler Stephenson	4.3	.671	.190	.007	.155	.456	.995	.268	.352	.444	.795
Dane Myers	4.2	.751	.164	.009	.127	.352	.941	.277	.346	.425	.771
Matt McLain	4.1	.591	.179	.005	.145	.441	.969	.255	.343	.428	.772
Héctor Rodríguez	4.0	.680	.155	.028	.155	.249	.713	.275	.325	.457	.782
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.9	.699	.148	.026	.095	.275	.630	.272	.330	.409	.739

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections