St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

August 20, 2026 · Michael McGreevy vs Brady Singer · 79°F

1.1% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

51.7%

Cincinnati Reds win

48.3%

Fair line (home)

+107

Proj. total

10.6

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 5.52)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.08)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.6

Over

54.5%

Under

35.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	51.7%	-107	-107
Cincinnati Reds	48.3%	-102	+107

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Michael McGreevy RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	5.0	4.0	5.9	1.4	2.8
Brady Singer RHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.1	4.1	5.9	1.6	3.0

Strikeout ladder

Michael McGreevy4+ 57%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Brady Singer4+ 60%6+ 23%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.9	.796	.182	.007	.214	.497	.764	.277	.365	.471	.836
Iván Herrera	4.8	.805	.182	.010	.198	.480	.844	.285	.378	.476	.854
Alec Burleson	4.7	.812	.206	.012	.263	.367	.681	.301	.361	.538	.899
Jordan Walker	4.6	.734	.205	.008	.237	.338	1.078	.281	.342	.503	.845
Joshua Báez	4.5	.590	.174	.021	.272	.275	1.254	.255	.312	.505	.817
Nathan Church	4.4	.777	.161	.022	.155	.248	.706	.274	.323	.439	.762
Bryan Torres	4.3	.802	.159	.027	.082	.430	.763	.281	.358	.401	.760
Blaze Jordan	4.2	.708	.197	.035	.174	.210	.544	.285	.327	.486	.814
Jimmy Crooks	4.0	.569	.146	.009	.178	.295	1.139	.244	.310	.434	.744

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.7	.792	.211	.066	.215	.391	.985	.302	.364	.534	.898
Sal Stewart	4.6	.779	.227	.004	.249	.326	.759	.299	.354	.533	.887
JJ Bleday	4.5	.615	.204	.019	.229	.470	.802	.269	.349	.503	.853
Tyler Stephenson	4.3	.701	.205	.006	.165	.386	.951	.275	.345	.457	.802
Matt McLain	4.2	.659	.199	.006	.156	.367	.960	.266	.338	.443	.781
Michael Toglia	4.1	.544	.157	.011	.210	.329	1.129	.243	.307	.457	.764
Dane Myers	4.0	.750	.161	.008	.115	.287	.846	.279	.337	.420	.757
Héctor Rodríguez	3.9	.670	.157	.032	.182	.185	.649	.281	.319	.488	.806
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.8	.706	.144	.025	.091	.221	.611	.273	.320	.405	.725

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections