San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

September 1, 2026 · Randy Vásquez vs Nick Lodolo · 94°F

4.8% edge · Cincinnati Reds

San Diego Padres win

51.1%

Cincinnati Reds win

48.9%

Fair line (home)

+104

Proj. total

10.54

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 5.44)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.10)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.54

Over

53.7%

Under

36.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	51.1%	-132	-104
Cincinnati Reds	48.9%	+122	+104

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Randy Vásquez RHP · San Diego Padres	4.4	3.0	5.1	1.6	2.7
Nick Lodolo LHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.0	4.7	5.6	1.5	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Randy Vásquez4+ 36%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Nick Lodolo4+ 71%6+ 34%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.9	.787	.218	.017	.293	.495	.902	.304	.384	.565	.949
Samad Taylor	4.8	.803	.147	.039	.132	.378	1.204	.257	.325	.400	.725
Manny Machado	4.7	.723	.185	.002	.295	.410	.946	.284	.352	.538	.890
Ty France	4.6	.761	.173	.013	.208	.278	.899	.282	.357	.483	.840
Jackson Merrill	4.5	.683	.203	.034	.238	.291	.958	.281	.335	.519	.854
Xander Bogaerts	4.4	.753	.174	.005	.163	.408	.761	.281	.357	.454	.811
Austin Hays	4.3	.637	.174	.029	.193	.255	1.048	.262	.316	.467	.783
Freddy Fermin	4.1	.669	.165	.006	.146	.282	.829	.259	.319	.420	.739
Jase Bowen	4.0	.531	.133	.028	.175	.228	1.233	.232	.286	.423	.709

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Héctor Rodríguez	4.7	.736	.171	.038	.263	.268	.853	.276	.323	.513	.836
Elly De La Cruz	4.5	.690	.182	.054	.239	.458	1.050	.287	.364	.535	.899
Sal Stewart	4.4	.670	.203	.003	.286	.396	.840	.290	.359	.556	.915
JJ Bleday	4.3	.530	.178	.016	.259	.528	.865	.259	.353	.519	.872
Matt McLain	4.2	.598	.173	.004	.181	.430	1.052	.255	.340	.448	.788
Jose Trevino	4.1	.674	.171	.007	.166	.234	.624	.263	.310	.440	.751
Juan Brito	4.0	.567	.166	.016	.126	.372	.774	.243	.321	.402	.723
TJ Friedl	3.9	.592	.126	.019	.129	.383	.700	.251	.339	.411	.749
Edwin Arroyo	3.8	.668	.147	.042	.102	.194	.723	.270	.316	.421	.737

Data notes: game-time temp 94F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections