Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

September 4, 2026 · Shane Drohan vs Rhett Lowder · 95°F

4.3% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers win

54.7%

Cincinnati Reds win

45.3%

Fair line (home)

+121

Proj. total

11.05

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 5.90)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.15)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

11.05

Over

57.7%

Under

42.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	54.7%	-151	-121
Cincinnati Reds	45.3%	+139	+121

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Shane Drohan LHP · Milwaukee Brewers	3.9	4.4	4.0	1.5	2.1
Rhett Lowder RHP · Cincinnati Reds	4.5	3.7	5.4	1.9	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Shane Drohan4+ 67%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Rhett Lowder4+ 51%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sal Frelick	5.0	.946	.227	.015	.136	.433	.593	.291	.358	.437	.795
Jake Bauers	4.9	.633	.172	.016	.323	.688	1.210	.273	.381	.553	.934
Jackson Chourio	4.8	.792	.245	.015	.292	.352	.933	.303	.358	.563	.920
Christian Yelich	4.7	.741	.182	.014	.216	.529	1.033	.279	.366	.487	.853
William Contreras	4.6	.794	.204	.009	.223	.511	.684	.304	.386	.523	.909
Brice Turang	4.5	.731	.178	.019	.185	.493	.918	.280	.362	.474	.835
Garrett Mitchell	4.4	.658	.192	.024	.172	.476	1.228	.272	.358	.468	.825
Cooper Pratt	4.3	.689	.147	.031	.129	.395	.767	.261	.337	.417	.754
David Hamilton	4.2	.623	.147	.024	.134	.360	.896	.247	.316	.405	.722

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dane Myers	4.7	.760	.159	.006	.167	.409	1.195	.258	.330	.417	.747
Elly De La Cruz	4.6	.674	.184	.032	.235	.455	1.231	.276	.354	.510	.864
Sal Stewart	4.5	.655	.190	.004	.287	.388	.960	.282	.351	.545	.896
Tyler Stephenson	4.3	.592	.172	.004	.206	.460	1.207	.253	.339	.461	.800
Eugenio Suárez	4.2	.461	.142	.003	.305	.409	1.337	.242	.328	.524	.852
JJ Bleday	4.1	.475	.160	.018	.235	.532	.958	.248	.349	.499	.848
Matt McLain	4.0	.514	.155	.004	.167	.417	1.149	.235	.324	.421	.745
Héctor Rodríguez	3.9	.592	.144	.022	.241	.228	.831	.273	.321	.522	.843
Edwin Arroyo	3.8	.659	.146	.025	.095	.193	.843	.260	.306	.395	.701

Data notes: game-time temp 95F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections