San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

September 2, 2026 · Casey Mize vs Brandon Williamson · 95°F

0.2% edge · Cincinnati Reds

San Diego Padres win

57.4%

Cincinnati Reds win

42.6%

Fair line (home)

+135

Proj. total

10.43

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 5.71)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.73)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

10.43

Over

53.1%

Under

46.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	57.4%	-142	-135
Cincinnati Reds	42.6%	+131	+135

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Casey Mize RHP · San Diego Padres	4.8	4.8	5.1	1.5	2.6
Brandon Williamson LHP · Cincinnati Reds	4.6	3.7	5.4	1.9	2.9

Strikeout ladder

Casey Mize4+ 72%6+ 35%8+ 10%

Brandon Williamson4+ 51%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	5.0	.796	.212	.017	.306	.585	.850	.306	.395	.574	.969
Samad Taylor	4.9	.824	.143	.037	.149	.454	1.118	.263	.338	.415	.753
Jackson Merrill	4.8	.740	.213	.030	.279	.357	.937	.289	.347	.543	.890
Ty France	4.7	.752	.184	.013	.215	.331	.871	.279	.352	.483	.835
Xander Bogaerts	4.5	.792	.167	.005	.183	.480	.720	.285	.367	.466	.833
Ethan Salas	4.4	.671	.182	.010	.151	.368	.828	.251	.319	.414	.733
Austin Hays	4.3	.636	.166	.028	.216	.299	1.013	.263	.320	.481	.801
Luis Campusano	4.2	.628	.162	.004	.240	.444	.805	.278	.361	.517	.877
Jake Cronenworth	4.1	.592	.157	.013	.139	.469	.774	.254	.353	.422	.775

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Héctor Rodríguez	4.6	.700	.166	.034	.261	.239	1.008	.266	.308	.499	.807
Elly De La Cruz	4.5	.641	.174	.051	.244	.406	1.206	.273	.342	.520	.862
Sal Stewart	4.4	.638	.203	.002	.274	.360	.976	.279	.343	.537	.880
JJ Bleday	4.3	.506	.169	.017	.253	.494	.989	.250	.340	.505	.845
Tyler Stephenson	4.2	.591	.167	.005	.188	.378	1.155	.252	.325	.448	.774
Dane Myers	4.1	.653	.137	.006	.135	.305	1.087	.249	.312	.398	.710
Juan Brito	4.0	.527	.156	.019	.122	.351	.884	.229	.303	.385	.689
Matt McLain	3.9	.502	.152	.003	.157	.372	1.098	.236	.316	.418	.734
Edwin Arroyo	3.7	.631	.134	.038	.096	.184	.826	.255	.299	.397	.696

Data notes: home starter Brandon Williamson: only 24 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 95F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections