Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

September 5, 2026 · Dustin May vs Andrew Abbott · 88°F

6.3% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers win

51.8%

Cincinnati Reds win

48.2%

Fair line (home)

+107

Proj. total

10.82

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 5.63)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.20)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.82

Over

55.9%

Under

34.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	51.8%	-146	-107
Cincinnati Reds	48.2%	+134	+107

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Dustin May RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	4.7	5.0	4.9	1.8	2.7
Andrew Abbott LHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.0	4.2	5.7	2.0	3.0

Strikeout ladder

Dustin May4+ 76%6+ 39%8+ 13%

Andrew Abbott4+ 62%6+ 25%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	5.0	.798	.243	.015	.319	.366	.992	.300	.355	.569	.923
Luis Lara	4.8	.854	.184	.029	.116	.445	.918	.271	.345	.406	.751
William Contreras	4.7	.792	.206	.008	.238	.564	.730	.300	.387	.526	.914
Andrew Vaughn	4.6	.747	.194	.019	.221	.388	.809	.281	.347	.494	.841
Garrett Mitchell	4.5	.645	.190	.024	.194	.507	1.301	.265	.352	.471	.823
Joey Ortiz	4.4	.729	.188	.028	.159	.377	.713	.275	.340	.454	.794
Cooper Pratt	4.3	.680	.142	.032	.141	.401	.791	.257	.332	.420	.752
Gary Sánchez	4.2	.507	.118	.012	.288	.471	.963	.252	.345	.527	.872
David Hamilton	4.1	.583	.133	.022	.156	.366	.905	.242	.314	.416	.730

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Héctor Rodríguez	4.7	.717	.173	.027	.278	.285	.988	.275	.325	.519	.845
Elly De La Cruz	4.5	.669	.185	.048	.233	.478	1.215	.281	.362	.523	.886
Sal Stewart	4.4	.658	.188	.003	.285	.391	.952	.283	.354	.546	.900
JJ Bleday	4.3	.515	.175	.016	.248	.548	.990	.254	.353	.506	.859
Tyler Stephenson	4.2	.583	.159	.004	.197	.446	1.177	.252	.340	.455	.794
Eugenio Suárez	4.1	.454	.141	.003	.296	.398	1.323	.244	.331	.527	.858
Jose Trevino	4.0	.662	.155	.005	.159	.224	.689	.260	.307	.429	.736
Carlos Jorge	3.9	.658	.132	.027	.101	.235	.974	.252	.305	.387	.691
Matt McLain	3.8	.490	.147	.003	.158	.390	1.070	.239	.329	.426	.755

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections