Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

September 16, 2026 · Blake Snell vs Andrew Abbott · 93°F

3.5% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Los Angeles Dodgers win

62.3%

Cincinnati Reds win

37.7%

Fair line (home)

+165

Proj. total

10.55

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 6.08)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.46)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.55

Over

63.9%

Under

29.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Dodgers	62.3%	-204	-165
Cincinnati Reds	37.7%	+186	+165

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Blake Snell LHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.0	6.7	4.3	2.4	2.2
Andrew Abbott LHP · Cincinnati Reds	4.9	3.5	5.8	2.0	3.2

Strikeout ladder

Blake Snell4+ 91%6+ 68%8+ 35%

Andrew Abbott4+ 48%6+ 14%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Tommy Edman	5.0	.821	.194	.022	.197	.321	.917	.267	.324	.446	.770
Mookie Betts	4.9	.801	.227	.017	.288	.531	.506	.307	.386	.566	.952
Will Smith	4.8	.699	.185	.010	.263	.576	.833	.278	.372	.517	.889
Freddie Freeman	4.7	.801	.225	.011	.235	.512	.771	.309	.391	.540	.931
Teoscar Hernández	4.6	.707	.183	.017	.296	.351	1.116	.287	.346	.550	.896
Miguel Rojas	4.5	.820	.210	.004	.131	.307	.527	.282	.337	.430	.767
Kyle Tucker	4.3	.623	.162	.023	.259	.596	.643	.286	.387	.549	.937
Enrique Hernández	4.2	.624	.172	.012	.186	.324	.945	.254	.314	.447	.760
Alex Call	4.1	.602	.166	.011	.135	.506	.751	.256	.356	.422	.778

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dane Myers	4.6	.702	.135	.006	.141	.458	1.406	.238	.319	.376	.695
Elly De La Cruz	4.5	.593	.164	.028	.219	.494	1.430	.251	.337	.470	.807
Sal Stewart	4.4	.603	.166	.002	.246	.464	1.119	.260	.343	.491	.834
Tyler Stephenson	4.3	.536	.147	.003	.169	.527	1.387	.228	.328	.404	.732
Eugenio Suárez	4.2	.418	.122	.002	.277	.461	1.489	.222	.318	.482	.800
Juan Brito	4.1	.499	.158	.012	.115	.416	1.090	.215	.301	.359	.660
JJ Bleday	4.0	.415	.141	.015	.210	.573	1.081	.230	.344	.466	.809
Jose Trevino	3.9	.572	.133	.003	.141	.248	.826	.236	.289	.392	.680
Matt McLain	3.8	.418	.128	.003	.141	.430	1.204	.210	.308	.379	.688

Data notes: away starter Blake Snell: only 48 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 93F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections