Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

September 15, 2026 · Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Rhett Lowder · 92°F

3.5% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Los Angeles Dodgers win

64.9%

Cincinnati Reds win

35.1%

Fair line (home)

+185

Proj. total

10.38

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 6.12)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.27)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

10.38

Over

62.2%

Under

37.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Dodgers	64.9%	-232	-185
Cincinnati Reds	35.1%	+209	+185

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.9	6.7	5.6	1.7	2.6
Rhett Lowder RHP · Cincinnati Reds	4.5	3.4	5.4	2.0	3.0

Strikeout ladder

Yoshinobu Yamamoto4+ 92%6+ 68%8+ 36%

Rhett Lowder4+ 44%6+ 11%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Josue De Paula	5.0	.788	.224	.016	.224	.504	.906	.278	.355	.484	.839
Freddie Freeman	4.9	.876	.250	.013	.233	.544	.769	.316	.399	.541	.940
Mookie Betts	4.8	.796	.223	.017	.265	.511	.473	.304	.383	.551	.934
Kyle Tucker	4.7	.694	.177	.025	.258	.649	.665	.286	.389	.534	.923
Teoscar Hernández	4.6	.730	.179	.017	.287	.355	1.084	.288	.349	.543	.892
Max Muncy	4.5	.535	.149	.010	.304	.642	1.006	.263	.377	.547	.924
Tommy Edman	4.4	.733	.173	.030	.155	.292	.772	.271	.331	.444	.775
Hunter Feduccia	4.3	.632	.161	.015	.128	.441	1.017	.246	.328	.398	.726
Alex Freeland	4.2	.602	.144	.017	.148	.425	1.040	.246	.329	.414	.743

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carlos Jorge	4.5	.748	.145	.033	.108	.239	1.240	.242	.287	.367	.654
Elly De La Cruz	4.4	.642	.173	.047	.221	.393	1.306	.269	.338	.501	.839
Sal Stewart	4.3	.650	.180	.004	.235	.346	1.025	.270	.333	.496	.829
JJ Bleday	4.2	.483	.164	.015	.218	.475	1.076	.236	.325	.462	.787
Eugenio Suárez	4.1	.454	.131	.002	.263	.346	1.408	.228	.304	.476	.779
Héctor Rodríguez	4.0	.611	.136	.026	.223	.201	.954	.262	.304	.488	.791
Matt McLain	3.9	.507	.151	.005	.145	.354	1.184	.230	.308	.399	.707
Juan Brito	3.8	.507	.145	.014	.106	.329	.927	.224	.297	.367	.664
Will Banfield	3.7	.506	.128	.004	.112	.145	1.083	.214	.250	.348	.598

Data notes: game-time temp 92F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections