Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

September 14, 2026 · Tarik Skubal vs Nick Lodolo · 76°F

3.0% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Los Angeles Dodgers win

63.0%

Cincinnati Reds win

37.0%

Fair line (home)

+170

Proj. total

9.48

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.55)Cincinnati Reds (mean 3.93)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.48

Over

62.7%

Under

37.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Dodgers	63.0%	-208	-170
Cincinnati Reds	37.0%	+188	+170

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tarik Skubal LHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.7	7.6	5.0	1.3	2.2
Nick Lodolo LHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.0	4.3	5.5	1.8	2.9

Strikeout ladder

Tarik Skubal4+ 96%6+ 80%8+ 50%

Nick Lodolo4+ 64%6+ 26%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Tommy Edman	5.0	.779	.188	.022	.166	.295	.990	.256	.323	.418	.742
Mookie Betts	4.8	.779	.216	.015	.248	.482	.572	.293	.371	.524	.895
Will Smith	4.7	.675	.182	.009	.241	.514	.882	.270	.366	.495	.861
Kyle Tucker	4.6	.643	.171	.021	.251	.603	.764	.274	.376	.518	.894
Teoscar Hernández	4.5	.685	.169	.014	.257	.333	1.200	.273	.337	.509	.845
Miguel Rojas	4.4	.820	.208	.003	.106	.282	.566	.280	.335	.411	.746
Max Muncy	4.3	.484	.133	.011	.278	.584	1.050	.250	.365	.522	.887
Enrique Hernández	4.2	.601	.165	.011	.159	.290	1.012	.242	.300	.414	.714
Josue De Paula	4.1	.599	.163	.008	.163	.382	.864	.256	.332	.438	.771

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dane Myers	4.5	.674	.133	.005	.134	.293	1.427	.229	.287	.362	.649
Elly De La Cruz	4.4	.583	.167	.027	.212	.325	1.469	.247	.308	.461	.768
Sal Stewart	4.3	.606	.159	.002	.240	.307	1.156	.256	.315	.481	.796
Tyler Stephenson	4.2	.530	.150	.003	.169	.347	1.423	.225	.295	.400	.696
Eugenio Suárez	4.1	.407	.121	.002	.255	.303	1.539	.212	.282	.452	.734
Juan Brito	4.0	.491	.143	.009	.110	.291	1.104	.208	.273	.343	.617
JJ Bleday	3.8	.408	.133	.013	.195	.398	1.102	.220	.305	.438	.743
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.7	.559	.122	.015	.093	.213	.986	.227	.277	.350	.627
Héctor Rodríguez	3.6	.499	.113	.021	.177	.173	.977	.239	.281	.441	.723

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections