Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

September 18, 2026 · Clay Holmes vs Chase Burns · 80°F

6.6% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs win

50.2%

Cincinnati Reds win

49.8%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

10.27

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 5.26)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.01)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

10.27

Over

61.2%

Under

38.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	50.2%	-138	-101
Cincinnati Reds	49.8%	+127	+101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Clay Holmes RHP · Chicago Cubs	5.1	4.6	5.6	2.2	2.7
Chase Burns RHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.0	5.7	4.7	2.1	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Clay Holmes4+ 68%6+ 32%8+ 9%

Chase Burns4+ 84%6+ 53%8+ 21%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.633	.182	.047	.320	.412	1.365	.267	.336	.545	.881
Seiya Suzuki	4.8	.645	.188	.015	.245	.556	1.319	.260	.350	.486	.835
Michael Busch	4.7	.569	.168	.022	.234	.552	1.258	.244	.341	.468	.810
Alex Bregman	4.6	.647	.178	.012	.222	.504	.763	.263	.352	.479	.831
Ian Happ	4.5	.529	.162	.013	.189	.571	1.317	.232	.336	.427	.763
Nico Hoerner	4.3	.844	.183	.011	.082	.316	.473	.281	.341	.394	.736
Michael Conforto	4.2	.490	.151	.005	.192	.480	1.214	.226	.323	.425	.748
Carson Kelly	4.1	.614	.135	.007	.161	.405	.867	.248	.328	.419	.747
Dansby Swanson	4.0	.550	.131	.019	.172	.381	1.092	.241	.316	.430	.746

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carlos Jorge	4.7	.846	.168	.036	.105	.305	1.022	.265	.319	.392	.712
Elly De La Cruz	4.6	.747	.214	.053	.191	.501	1.067	.297	.379	.517	.896
Sal Stewart	4.5	.754	.205	.004	.210	.428	.836	.292	.365	.502	.868
Tyler Stephenson	4.4	.657	.199	.005	.152	.488	1.066	.264	.355	.437	.792
JJ Bleday	4.3	.552	.177	.020	.185	.572	.877	.255	.359	.465	.825
Eugenio Suárez	4.2	.517	.147	.004	.230	.435	1.175	.245	.338	.476	.814
Héctor Rodríguez	4.1	.658	.153	.028	.186	.245	.783	.271	.321	.473	.794
Jose Trevino	4.0	.684	.165	.005	.112	.233	.581	.262	.311	.401	.711
Matt McLain	3.8	.536	.159	.004	.120	.424	.973	.244	.337	.401	.738

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections