Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

September 20, 2026 · David Peterson vs Rhett Lowder · 88°F

0.3% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs win

58.7%

Cincinnati Reds win

41.3%

Fair line (home)

+142

Proj. total

11.2

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 6.23)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.98)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

11.2

Over

59.1%

Under

40.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	58.7%	-151	-142
Cincinnati Reds	41.3%	+139	+142

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
David Peterson LHP · Chicago Cubs	4.6	4.4	5.0	1.9	2.3
Rhett Lowder RHP · Cincinnati Reds	4.5	3.5	5.4	1.9	3.0

Strikeout ladder

David Peterson4+ 65%6+ 26%8+ 7%

Rhett Lowder4+ 47%6+ 13%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	5.0	.715	.204	.050	.365	.432	1.092	.293	.363	.601	.963
Seiya Suzuki	4.9	.736	.222	.016	.271	.594	1.072	.289	.379	.537	.916
Michael Busch	4.8	.674	.196	.022	.280	.568	.999	.280	.375	.538	.913
Alex Bregman	4.7	.734	.204	.013	.246	.530	.586	.290	.379	.525	.905
Ian Happ	4.6	.600	.178	.014	.232	.610	1.102	.259	.364	.486	.850
Nico Hoerner	4.5	.933	.209	.015	.092	.324	.369	.303	.362	.428	.789
Michael Conforto	4.4	.599	.170	.007	.223	.504	.994	.261	.355	.484	.839
Pedro Ramírez	4.3	.796	.177	.037	.130	.300	.718	.289	.345	.451	.796
Miguel Amaya	4.2	.616	.175	.007	.165	.344	.861	.258	.334	.441	.775

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dane Myers	4.7	.819	.174	.005	.131	.444	1.104	.266	.343	.402	.744
Elly De La Cruz	4.6	.709	.209	.037	.209	.486	1.151	.284	.365	.506	.871
Sal Stewart	4.5	.722	.197	.002	.239	.427	.893	.287	.360	.514	.874
Tyler Stephenson	4.4	.663	.186	.005	.162	.482	1.118	.262	.350	.438	.788
JJ Bleday	4.3	.532	.171	.019	.213	.585	.909	.253	.359	.483	.842
Matt McLain	4.2	.561	.171	.005	.147	.451	1.089	.239	.330	.408	.737
Oswaldo Cabrera	4.1	.707	.145	.009	.133	.295	.842	.264	.323	.413	.736
Will Banfield	4.0	.619	.163	.011	.143	.337	.851	.260	.332	.431	.763
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.9	.663	.149	.020	.098	.294	.729	.263	.324	.399	.723

Data notes: home batter Will Banfield: only 12 effective PA (3yr weighted) · game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 19/20 lineup+starter talents from projections