Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Odds

September 19, 2026 · Matthew Boyd vs Nick Lodolo · 87°F

2.9% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Chicago Cubs win

53.8%

Cincinnati Reds win

46.3%

Fair line (home)

+116

Proj. total

11.12

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 5.95)Cincinnati Reds (mean 5.16)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

11.12

Over

57.8%

Under

32.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	53.8%	-137	-116
Cincinnati Reds	46.3%	+126	+116

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Matthew Boyd LHP · Chicago Cubs	5.2	5.1	5.7	1.8	3.0
Nick Lodolo LHP · Cincinnati Reds	4.9	4.3	5.6	1.8	3.0

Strikeout ladder

Matthew Boyd4+ 75%6+ 40%8+ 13%

Nick Lodolo4+ 63%6+ 25%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	5.0	.683	.203	.047	.348	.407	1.185	.286	.359	.585	.944
Alex Bregman	4.9	.755	.205	.014	.244	.514	.680	.285	.375	.511	.886
Seiya Suzuki	4.8	.681	.211	.018	.262	.543	1.150	.280	.370	.527	.897
Tyrone Taylor	4.7	.707	.243	.019	.202	.248	.934	.271	.327	.477	.804
Nico Hoerner	4.5	.943	.201	.016	.092	.299	.406	.300	.360	.422	.782
Michael Busch	4.5	.582	.175	.022	.241	.502	1.022	.265	.364	.510	.874
Carson Kelly	4.3	.701	.143	.006	.179	.406	.780	.267	.346	.446	.792
Matt Shaw	4.2	.634	.160	.035	.186	.406	.798	.270	.352	.480	.832
Dansby Swanson	4.1	.598	.144	.023	.191	.379	.976	.258	.333	.464	.797

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dane Myers	4.7	.816	.172	.007	.166	.358	1.081	.271	.335	.431	.765
Elly De La Cruz	4.6	.727	.206	.036	.261	.392	1.111	.296	.361	.552	.913
Sal Stewart	4.5	.721	.195	.002	.276	.359	.856	.294	.357	.547	.904
Tyler Stephenson	4.3	.632	.180	.004	.196	.427	1.085	.261	.341	.461	.803
Eugenio Suárez	4.2	.494	.148	.003	.303	.380	1.226	.250	.330	.531	.861
Juan Brito	4.1	.591	.179	.012	.137	.336	.820	.245	.314	.408	.722
JJ Bleday	4.0	.481	.165	.017	.232	.474	.850	.254	.346	.508	.855
Matt McLain	3.9	.531	.157	.003	.170	.372	1.003	.246	.326	.438	.764
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.8	.645	.134	.021	.109	.253	.705	.258	.313	.402	.715

Data notes: game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections