Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

September 4, 2026 · Keider Montero vs Logan Allen · 77°F

0.2% edge · Cleveland Guardians

Detroit Tigers win

44.4%

Cleveland Guardians win

55.6%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

8.77

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.20)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.57)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.77

Over

48.6%

Under

43.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	44.4%	+120	+125
Cleveland Guardians	55.6%	-130	-125

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Keider Montero RHP · Detroit Tigers	4.4	2.8	5.0	1.6	2.3
Logan Allen LHP · Cleveland Guardians	2.7	2.4	2.7	0.9	1.1

Strikeout ladder

Keider Montero4+ 31%6+ 6%8+ 1%

Logan Allen4+ 22%6+ 3%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gleyber Torres	4.8	.768	.172	.003	.115	.593	.887	.254	.351	.379	.730
Kevin McGonigle	4.7	.746	.190	.024	.127	.577	.685	.267	.362	.418	.780
Hao-Yu Lee	4.6	.690	.179	.023	.119	.340	1.071	.242	.306	.381	.687
Dillon Dingler	4.5	.624	.176	.017	.162	.292	1.083	.239	.303	.409	.712
Riley Greene	4.3	.613	.184	.012	.171	.460	1.229	.254	.339	.442	.780
Ben Malgeri	4.2	.600	.163	.025	.105	.336	1.214	.232	.302	.369	.671
Spencer Torkelson	4.1	.452	.156	.003	.168	.461	1.247	.215	.311	.398	.710
Max Clark	4.0	.608	.141	.033	.093	.384	.850	.243	.322	.377	.699
Javier Báez	3.9	.611	.152	.017	.090	.155	.919	.234	.274	.357	.631

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.6	.935	.185	.019	.067	.487	.377	.293	.371	.396	.767
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.796	.231	.026	.156	.436	.613	.297	.368	.481	.849
José Ramírez	4.4	.699	.217	.011	.176	.442	.475	.279	.356	.472	.828
Jo Adell	4.3	.605	.182	.013	.218	.264	.943	.256	.314	.473	.787
Nathaniel Lowe	4.2	.666	.171	.007	.145	.461	.894	.265	.350	.432	.781
Angel Genao	4.1	.729	.196	.019	.082	.309	.661	.272	.332	.400	.732
Travis Bazzana	4.0	.583	.172	.028	.092	.443	.828	.248	.338	.391	.730
Patrick Bailey	3.9	.596	.133	.019	.097	.300	.902	.237	.301	.366	.667
Brayan Rocchio	3.8	.626	.168	.024	.071	.261	.542	.258	.321	.382	.703

Data notes: home starter Logan Allen: only 24 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Logan Allen: only 43 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections