Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

July 3, 2026 · Anthony Kay vs Gavin Williams · 90°F

0.7% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

45.9%

Cleveland Guardians win

54.1%

Fair line (home)

-118

Proj. total

8.68

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.22)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.47)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.68

Over

47.7%

Under

44.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	45.9%	+117	+118
Cleveland Guardians	54.1%	-127	-118

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.8	.817	.177	.035	.063	.533	.932	.262	.365	.367	.732
Miguel Vargas	4.7	.588	.178	.015	.183	.627	.998	.238	.347	.425	.771
Kyle Teel	4.6	.696	.150	.008	.120	.560	1.288	.242	.341	.373	.713
Andrew Benintendi	4.5	.664	.147	.024	.134	.450	1.024	.240	.320	.388	.708
Colson Montgomery	4.4	.486	.133	.010	.222	.431	1.432	.218	.306	.427	.733
Braden Montgomery	4.3	.600	.150	.019	.103	.401	1.379	.226	.307	.356	.663
Chase Meidroth	4.2	.706	.140	.004	.070	.500	.829	.253	.351	.351	.702
Tristan Peters	4.1	.585	.163	.018	.082	.380	1.000	.231	.308	.352	.660
Jacob Gonzalez	4.0	.552	.130	.011	.113	.344	.931	.225	.299	.362	.661

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Travis Bazzana	4.7	.656	.215	.033	.102	.601	1.010	.251	.356	.397	.753
David Fry	4.5	.631	.182	.010	.145	.485	1.111	.243	.336	.402	.739
Chase DeLauter	4.4	.766	.199	.021	.145	.465	.603	.287	.366	.458	.824
Rhys Hoskins	4.3	.540	.156	.006	.164	.600	1.076	.236	.352	.415	.767
Kyle Manzardo	4.2	.553	.163	.018	.187	.498	.990	.250	.348	.457	.805
Brayan Rocchio	4.1	.675	.180	.014	.088	.342	.616	.259	.336	.386	.722
Gabriel Arias	4.0	.586	.180	.019	.124	.286	1.135	.246	.308	.406	.715
Austin Hedges	3.9	.566	.124	.005	.089	.360	.847	.224	.303	.338	.641
Steven Kwan	3.8	.705	.149	.009	.060	.434	.327	.278	.366	.383	.749

Data notes: game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections