Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

July 4, 2026 · Sean Burke vs Parker Messick · 82°F

2.5% edge · Cleveland Guardians

Chicago White Sox win

41.3%

Cleveland Guardians win

58.7%

Fair line (home)

-142

Proj. total

8.1

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 3.74)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.35)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.1

Over

45.6%

Under

54.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	41.3%	+124	+142
Cleveland Guardians	58.7%	-135	-142

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Miguel Vargas	4.7	.608	.184	.017	.167	.566	.932	.239	.340	.415	.755
Randal Grichuk	4.6	.671	.196	.011	.178	.284	1.009	.248	.301	.425	.726
Chase Meidroth	4.5	.776	.163	.005	.071	.479	.814	.258	.346	.356	.702
Colson Montgomery	4.4	.492	.133	.010	.209	.386	1.352	.216	.298	.415	.712
Junior Perez	4.3	.496	.147	.027	.103	.366	1.463	.199	.272	.331	.603
Braden Montgomery	4.2	.589	.160	.012	.097	.332	1.263	.228	.300	.354	.654
Luisangel Acuña	4.0	.740	.151	.015	.054	.237	.749	.253	.302	.343	.645
Tristan Peters	3.9	.579	.163	.017	.073	.330	.915	.233	.303	.349	.653
Drew Romo	3.8	.520	.127	.006	.107	.210	1.018	.213	.268	.343	.610

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Travis Bazzana	4.6	.616	.186	.029	.110	.635	1.100	.238	.351	.384	.735
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.702	.189	.019	.175	.527	.693	.273	.362	.463	.825
Kyle Manzardo	4.4	.510	.160	.016	.219	.549	1.113	.237	.341	.460	.801
Kahlil Watson	4.3	.509	.149	.015	.159	.451	1.353	.218	.309	.390	.699
Brayan Rocchio	4.2	.660	.166	.018	.102	.407	.678	.254	.339	.391	.730
Cooper Ingle	4.1	.549	.161	.007	.103	.646	.883	.240	.365	.381	.747
Daniel Schneemann	4.0	.514	.153	.009	.112	.469	1.063	.225	.320	.369	.689
Austin Hedges	3.9	.506	.116	.004	.095	.375	.919	.208	.293	.327	.620
Steven Kwan	3.8	.683	.141	.010	.067	.462	.354	.276	.371	.387	.758

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections