Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

July 17, 2026 · Jared Jones vs Gavin Williams · 82°F

4.5% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

50.4%

Cleveland Guardians win

49.6%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

8.19

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.21)Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.98)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.19

Over

50.3%

Under

49.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	50.4%	+114	-101
Cleveland Guardians	49.6%	-123	+101

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.8	.945	.195	.014	.044	.269	.992	.267	.316	.346	.662
Brandon Lowe	4.7	.572	.180	.011	.225	.444	1.371	.234	.312	.442	.753
Bryan Reynolds	4.6	.674	.166	.018	.142	.490	1.248	.248	.337	.403	.739
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.5	.564	.155	.011	.179	.480	1.422	.230	.319	.411	.730
Ryan O'Hearn	4.4	.702	.162	.011	.145	.424	.980	.261	.340	.420	.760
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.742	.185	.026	.073	.309	.942	.263	.323	.379	.703
Marcell Ozuna	4.2	.539	.124	.003	.159	.530	1.219	.229	.332	.397	.729
Jacob Gonzalez	4.0	.575	.141	.009	.102	.344	.952	.226	.298	.352	.650
Henry Davis	3.9	.470	.132	.007	.123	.366	1.103	.209	.295	.356	.651

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Travis Bazzana	4.6	.615	.200	.024	.097	.565	1.188	.235	.337	.370	.706
Brayan Rocchio	4.5	.710	.185	.024	.094	.382	.837	.252	.329	.379	.708
Chase DeLauter	4.4	.731	.206	.016	.140	.449	.724	.279	.357	.447	.804
Kyle Manzardo	4.3	.506	.151	.014	.178	.479	1.201	.226	.322	.416	.738
Rhys Hoskins	4.2	.475	.149	.005	.155	.545	1.273	.219	.330	.393	.723
Kahlil Watson	4.1	.489	.140	.013	.114	.363	1.379	.206	.285	.345	.630
Gabriel Arias	4.0	.541	.151	.015	.120	.277	1.315	.227	.290	.375	.665
Austin Hedges	3.8	.528	.117	.004	.095	.330	.946	.215	.291	.334	.625
Steven Kwan	3.7	.682	.143	.020	.055	.410	.403	.276	.361	.383	.743

Data notes: away starter Jared Jones: only 59 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections