Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

July 5, 2026 · Chris Murphy vs Tanner Bibee · 77°F

7.2% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

50.4%

Cleveland Guardians win

49.6%

Fair line (home)

+102

Proj. total

8.12

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.18)Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.95)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.12

Over

43.7%

Under

56.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	50.4%	+127	-102
Cleveland Guardians	49.6%	-138	+102

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.8	.835	.167	.035	.063	.435	.854	.261	.353	.363	.716
Miguel Vargas	4.7	.606	.186	.016	.178	.536	.899	.241	.336	.424	.761
Kyle Teel	4.6	.703	.155	.009	.131	.480	1.190	.246	.332	.385	.717
Andrew Benintendi	4.5	.697	.157	.022	.139	.372	.928	.249	.316	.401	.716
Colson Montgomery	4.4	.509	.134	.012	.226	.368	1.321	.224	.303	.438	.740
Braden Montgomery	4.3	.610	.163	.019	.113	.339	1.279	.234	.303	.373	.676
Chase Meidroth	4.2	.708	.154	.004	.071	.428	.736	.255	.341	.357	.699
Tristan Peters	4.0	.605	.166	.016	.078	.317	.920	.234	.301	.351	.651
Jacob Gonzalez	3.9	.560	.127	.010	.111	.310	.859	.226	.295	.361	.656

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Travis Bazzana	4.6	.614	.177	.023	.094	.649	1.147	.231	.347	.358	.705
Kahlil Watson	4.5	.530	.146	.015	.133	.479	1.437	.206	.299	.350	.650
Chase DeLauter	4.4	.669	.191	.019	.141	.523	.696	.265	.357	.435	.791
Kyle Manzardo	4.3	.497	.146	.014	.179	.546	1.111	.226	.334	.418	.752
Gabriel Arias	4.2	.573	.164	.019	.115	.331	1.286	.228	.298	.371	.669
Cooper Ingle	4.1	.517	.157	.008	.087	.663	.932	.227	.359	.355	.714
Daniel Schneemann	4.0	.499	.145	.010	.087	.473	1.096	.212	.310	.334	.644
Patrick Bailey	3.9	.544	.120	.013	.073	.345	1.029	.214	.291	.319	.611
Steven Kwan	3.8	.668	.146	.010	.058	.470	.374	.271	.367	.375	.742

Data notes: away starter Chris Murphy: only 40 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Chris Murphy: only 42 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections