← Slate
2.6% edge · Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds
July 18, 2026 · Mason Montgomery vs Logan Allen · 76°F
Pittsburgh Pirates win
52.2%
Cleveland Guardians win
47.8%
Fair line (home)
+109
Proj. total
8.11
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.29)Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.82)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.11
Over
42.1%
Under
57.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.2% | -102 | -109 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 47.8% | -106 | +109 |
Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Mangum | 4.8 | .978 | .211 | .008 | .045 | .226 | .872 | .274 | .316 | .353 | .670 |
| Nick Gonzales | 4.7 | .849 | .212 | .028 | .076 | .333 | .911 | .270 | .330 | .385 | .715 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 4.6 | .706 | .175 | .015 | .143 | .450 | 1.122 | .254 | .337 | .410 | .747 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | 4.5 | .590 | .165 | .013 | .177 | .441 | 1.305 | .236 | .318 | .416 | .734 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 4.4 | .729 | .169 | .008 | .154 | .397 | .878 | .269 | .341 | .433 | .774 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 4.3 | .557 | .134 | .003 | .160 | .533 | 1.162 | .230 | .331 | .397 | .728 |
| Brandon Lowe | 4.2 | .538 | .158 | .010 | .196 | .373 | 1.108 | .239 | .312 | .441 | .753 |
| Rafael Flores Jr. | 4.1 | .591 | .151 | .015 | .093 | .383 | 1.170 | .232 | .310 | .358 | .669 |
| Jared Triolo | 4.0 | .596 | .148 | .013 | .064 | .427 | .933 | .236 | .325 | .341 | .666 |
Cleveland Guardians — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Bazzana | 4.6 | .625 | .190 | .025 | .089 | .608 | 1.140 | .235 | .344 | .363 | .707 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 4.5 | .704 | .184 | .023 | .079 | .390 | .802 | .246 | .326 | .362 | .688 |
| Chase DeLauter | 4.4 | .741 | .201 | .016 | .133 | .475 | .696 | .280 | .362 | .442 | .804 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 4.3 | .473 | .150 | .007 | .143 | .597 | 1.262 | .213 | .333 | .376 | .709 |
| Daniel Schneemann | 4.2 | .536 | .156 | .010 | .090 | .472 | 1.173 | .215 | .309 | .336 | .645 |
| David Fry | 4.1 | .503 | .148 | .008 | .121 | .436 | 1.140 | .218 | .314 | .365 | .679 |
| Petey Halpin | 4.0 | .564 | .141 | .026 | .068 | .307 | 1.120 | .220 | .285 | .329 | .615 |
| Austin Hedges | 3.9 | .533 | .119 | .004 | .086 | .343 | .916 | .214 | .292 | .324 | .616 |
| Steven Kwan | 3.7 | .684 | .141 | .018 | .048 | .453 | .380 | .274 | .368 | .373 | .741 |
Data notes: home starter Logan Allen: only 9 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Logan Allen: only 10 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Mason Montgomery: only 56 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections