Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

July 19, 2026 · Paul Skenes vs Joey Cantillo · 76°F

3.8% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

54.0%

Cleveland Guardians win

46.0%

Fair line (home)

+117

Proj. total

7.3

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 3.95)Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.35)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.3

Over

41.9%

Under

46.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	54.0%	-105	-117
Cleveland Guardians	46.0%	-103	+117

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.8	.951	.206	.008	.042	.253	.924	.269	.316	.347	.663
Jared Triolo	4.7	.694	.168	.009	.080	.575	1.130	.233	.333	.338	.671
Bryan Reynolds	4.6	.668	.172	.014	.140	.478	1.172	.246	.334	.400	.734
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.5	.563	.159	.012	.168	.504	1.378	.230	.324	.405	.729
Ryan O'Hearn	4.3	.699	.165	.010	.150	.447	.913	.264	.346	.429	.774
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.741	.183	.027	.069	.348	.878	.264	.331	.379	.710
Jacob Gonzalez	4.1	.564	.145	.009	.105	.378	.936	.221	.300	.350	.649
Henry Davis	4.0	.483	.131	.006	.131	.405	1.072	.210	.300	.361	.661
Billy Cook	3.9	.516	.126	.011	.092	.310	1.208	.208	.277	.327	.604

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.5	.819	.186	.021	.058	.434	.565	.270	.345	.370	.716
Travis Bazzana	4.4	.586	.182	.023	.087	.467	1.260	.227	.317	.353	.670
Chase DeLauter	4.3	.710	.203	.015	.117	.375	.811	.269	.336	.419	.756
Brayan Rocchio	4.2	.671	.171	.024	.068	.307	.862	.246	.314	.357	.671
Kyle Manzardo	4.1	.474	.146	.015	.155	.393	1.252	.217	.301	.392	.694
Kahlil Watson	4.0	.488	.131	.012	.093	.310	1.460	.200	.270	.320	.590
Gabriel Arias	3.9	.519	.150	.016	.097	.231	1.416	.218	.273	.349	.622
Patrick Bailey	3.7	.531	.117	.017	.064	.268	1.163	.212	.274	.311	.585
Petey Halpin	3.6	.498	.131	.024	.056	.224	1.134	.211	.264	.313	.577

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections