Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

July 20, 2026 · Joe Ryan vs Tanner Bibee · 79°F

1.8% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

56.2%

Cleveland Guardians win

43.8%

Fair line (home)

+129

Proj. total

8.14

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.48)Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.66)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.14

Over

50.6%

Under

49.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	56.2%	-125	-129
Cleveland Guardians	43.8%	+115	+129

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trevor Larnach	4.8	.727	.193	.016	.157	.480	1.059	.257	.338	.421	.759
Byron Buxton	4.7	.582	.199	.032	.296	.333	1.233	.260	.322	.530	.852
Kody Clemens	4.5	.591	.173	.036	.202	.296	1.077	.238	.295	.440	.736
Josh Bell	4.4	.660	.155	.011	.166	.405	.915	.248	.323	.418	.741
Royce Lewis	4.3	.601	.176	.004	.198	.317	1.027	.245	.306	.440	.746
Victor Caratini	4.2	.706	.120	.006	.127	.318	.828	.252	.325	.386	.712
Brooks Lee	4.1	.654	.145	.022	.140	.259	.722	.251	.303	.410	.713
Alan Roden	4.0	.617	.156	.017	.099	.365	.803	.249	.330	.385	.715
Ryan Kreidler	3.9	.493	.126	.021	.095	.366	1.186	.211	.294	.341	.635

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.5	.846	.178	.021	.071	.389	.519	.273	.342	.379	.721
Travis Bazzana	4.4	.611	.187	.024	.104	.430	1.179	.235	.318	.374	.692
Chase DeLauter	4.3	.738	.201	.015	.148	.330	.755	.279	.338	.449	.787
Brayan Rocchio	4.2	.670	.173	.027	.093	.295	.801	.251	.316	.383	.699
Rhys Hoskins	4.1	.470	.149	.005	.175	.414	1.288	.219	.308	.407	.716
Daniel Schneemann	4.0	.533	.151	.007	.101	.321	1.208	.217	.284	.345	.629
David Fry	3.9	.475	.147	.008	.140	.308	1.162	.218	.291	.384	.675
Patrick Bailey	3.8	.546	.120	.021	.079	.239	1.087	.219	.274	.333	.608
Petey Halpin	3.6	.527	.133	.029	.069	.186	1.089	.221	.266	.337	.603

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections