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7.0% edge · Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds
July 21, 2026 · Kendry Rojas vs Parker Messick · 78°F
Minnesota Twins win
49.3%
Cleveland Guardians win
50.7%
Fair line (home)
-103
Proj. total
8.32
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Minnesota Twins (mean 4.24)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.08)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.32
Over
44.6%
Under
47.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 49.3% | +132 | +103 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 50.7% | -143 | -103 |
Minnesota Twins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Martin | 4.8 | .785 | .204 | .009 | .042 | .559 | .910 | .249 | .346 | .333 | .679 |
| Byron Buxton | 4.7 | .582 | .190 | .033 | .262 | .346 | 1.279 | .250 | .316 | .494 | .810 |
| Ryan Jeffers | 4.6 | .641 | .201 | .014 | .158 | .486 | .955 | .254 | .346 | .430 | .777 |
| Josh Bell | 4.5 | .666 | .152 | .009 | .143 | .384 | .967 | .240 | .312 | .388 | .699 |
| Royce Lewis | 4.4 | .609 | .178 | .004 | .172 | .349 | 1.048 | .242 | .307 | .419 | .726 |
| Victor Caratini | 4.3 | .674 | .130 | .004 | .109 | .311 | .854 | .239 | .313 | .360 | .673 |
| Kody Clemens | 4.1 | .518 | .159 | .030 | .172 | .293 | 1.003 | .231 | .294 | .424 | .717 |
| Luke Keaschall | 4.0 | .677 | .176 | .011 | .064 | .386 | .685 | .261 | .345 | .370 | .716 |
| Ryan Kreidler | 3.9 | .477 | .133 | .021 | .074 | .382 | 1.238 | .202 | .289 | .316 | .605 |
Cleveland Guardians — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 4.6 | .883 | .178 | .022 | .065 | .514 | .408 | .282 | .367 | .385 | .752 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 4.5 | .756 | .199 | .023 | .085 | .375 | .734 | .263 | .337 | .386 | .724 |
| Chase DeLauter | 4.4 | .780 | .210 | .017 | .132 | .442 | .625 | .290 | .365 | .453 | .818 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 4.3 | .501 | .162 | .007 | .152 | .563 | 1.169 | .224 | .335 | .396 | .731 |
| David Fry | 4.2 | .545 | .160 | .010 | .132 | .437 | 1.085 | .230 | .321 | .386 | .707 |
| Travis Bazzana | 4.1 | .574 | .180 | .022 | .087 | .511 | .913 | .244 | .346 | .381 | .727 |
| Gabriel Arias | 4.0 | .583 | .161 | .017 | .122 | .285 | 1.196 | .242 | .305 | .396 | .701 |
| Austin Hedges | 3.9 | .564 | .121 | .006 | .091 | .316 | .866 | .223 | .294 | .338 | .632 |
| Petey Halpin | 3.7 | .547 | .141 | .027 | .064 | .265 | .971 | .226 | .285 | .338 | .623 |
Data notes: away starter Kendry Rojas: only 35 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Kendry Rojas: only 51 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections