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11.1% edge · Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds
July 31, 2026 · Mitch Bratt vs Tanner Bibee · 83°F
Arizona Diamondbacks win
54.1%
Cleveland Guardians win
45.9%
Fair line (home)
+118
Proj. total
8.95
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.80)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.15)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.95
Over
50.3%
Under
49.7%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 54.1% | +128 | -118 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 45.9% | -139 | +118 |
Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll | 4.9 | .654 | .185 | .098 | .211 | .511 | 1.039 | .267 | .353 | .503 | .856 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 4.8 | .803 | .174 | .040 | .110 | .561 | .626 | .272 | .366 | .412 | .778 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 4.7 | .862 | .205 | .012 | .128 | .447 | .753 | .290 | .364 | .437 | .800 |
| Ketel Marte | 4.5 | .725 | .194 | .027 | .205 | .417 | .715 | .282 | .355 | .494 | .849 |
| Max Kepler | 4.4 | .631 | .184 | .019 | .137 | .385 | .925 | .242 | .315 | .400 | .715 |
| Nolan Arenado | 4.3 | .688 | .174 | .008 | .150 | .300 | .745 | .256 | .314 | .417 | .731 |
| Adrian Del Castillo | 4.2 | .587 | .178 | .010 | .142 | .322 | 1.182 | .237 | .300 | .398 | .698 |
| Tim Tawa | 4.1 | .556 | .159 | .025 | .137 | .331 | 1.001 | .235 | .302 | .401 | .703 |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | 4.0 | .609 | .173 | .028 | .067 | .374 | 1.050 | .247 | .329 | .368 | .697 |
Cleveland Guardians — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel Martínez | 4.6 | .738 | .205 | .015 | .125 | .195 | .959 | .248 | .289 | .389 | .678 |
| José Ramírez | 4.5 | .726 | .224 | .011 | .188 | .367 | .547 | .281 | .345 | .479 | .824 |
| Chase DeLauter | 4.4 | .790 | .212 | .016 | .143 | .375 | .639 | .291 | .355 | .460 | .814 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 4.3 | .517 | .165 | .007 | .172 | .476 | 1.177 | .229 | .323 | .414 | .738 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 4.2 | .713 | .178 | .021 | .087 | .287 | .660 | .261 | .323 | .386 | .709 |
| David Fry | 4.1 | .549 | .157 | .009 | .130 | .357 | 1.086 | .231 | .308 | .385 | .693 |
| Travis Bazzana | 4.0 | .581 | .181 | .020 | .089 | .424 | .906 | .249 | .336 | .388 | .724 |
| Austin Hedges | 3.9 | .586 | .125 | .004 | .096 | .273 | .848 | .229 | .291 | .348 | .639 |
| Steven Kwan | 3.7 | .733 | .151 | .019 | .050 | .360 | .348 | .285 | .358 | .386 | .744 |
Data notes: away starter Mitch Bratt: only 23 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Mitch Bratt: only 54 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections