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10.3% edge · Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds
August 1, 2026 · Kohl Drake vs Parker Messick · 78°F
Arizona Diamondbacks win
48.7%
Cleveland Guardians win
51.3%
Fair line (home)
-105
Proj. total
8.77
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.44)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.33)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.77
Over
48.3%
Under
43.8%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 48.7% | +155 | +105 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 51.3% | -169 | -105 |
Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll | 4.8 | .620 | .183 | .100 | .181 | .540 | 1.071 | .256 | .348 | .474 | .822 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 4.7 | .807 | .177 | .024 | .087 | .527 | .651 | .265 | .356 | .382 | .739 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 4.6 | .841 | .209 | .012 | .113 | .460 | .794 | .285 | .362 | .423 | .785 |
| Ketel Marte | 4.5 | .721 | .192 | .017 | .186 | .410 | .751 | .275 | .349 | .468 | .818 |
| Nolan Arenado | 4.4 | .707 | .179 | .008 | .131 | .327 | .792 | .253 | .315 | .399 | .714 |
| Tim Tawa | 4.3 | .581 | .161 | .025 | .123 | .359 | 1.087 | .228 | .298 | .377 | .675 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 4.2 | .762 | .157 | .025 | .069 | .217 | .477 | .258 | .304 | .364 | .668 |
| James McCann | 4.1 | .639 | .172 | .008 | .101 | .206 | 1.059 | .241 | .287 | .369 | .656 |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | 4.0 | .583 | .164 | .030 | .058 | .403 | 1.078 | .239 | .328 | .354 | .681 |
Cleveland Guardians — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 4.7 | .894 | .187 | .024 | .062 | .488 | .399 | .282 | .361 | .384 | .745 |
| José Ramírez | 4.5 | .743 | .226 | .011 | .178 | .444 | .520 | .285 | .361 | .478 | .839 |
| Chase DeLauter | 4.4 | .788 | .219 | .017 | .141 | .415 | .610 | .291 | .360 | .460 | .821 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 4.3 | .518 | .160 | .005 | .159 | .556 | 1.137 | .227 | .335 | .401 | .736 |
| Angel Martínez | 4.2 | .669 | .195 | .014 | .118 | .222 | .835 | .253 | .302 | .399 | .701 |
| David Fry | 4.1 | .548 | .158 | .008 | .129 | .409 | 1.052 | .231 | .317 | .385 | .702 |
| Travis Bazzana | 4.0 | .588 | .188 | .022 | .079 | .490 | .872 | .253 | .351 | .388 | .739 |
| Austin Hedges | 3.9 | .574 | .131 | .004 | .091 | .327 | .826 | .227 | .300 | .344 | .643 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 3.8 | .628 | .168 | .017 | .072 | .296 | .581 | .259 | .330 | .382 | .711 |
Data notes: away starter Kohl Drake: only 12 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Kohl Drake: only 28 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections