Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

August 2, 2026 · Merrill Kelly vs Gavin Williams · 74°F

8.5% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

47.4%

Cleveland Guardians win

52.6%

Fair line (home)

-111

Proj. total

9.05

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.53)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.52)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.05

Over

59.1%

Under

40.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	47.4%	+152	+111
Cleveland Guardians	52.6%	-166	-111

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Corbin Carroll	4.9	.607	.176	.098	.181	.595	1.168	.251	.351	.468	.819
Geraldo Perdomo	4.8	.756	.169	.039	.088	.664	.723	.260	.370	.386	.756
Gabriel Moreno	4.7	.822	.204	.011	.116	.524	.862	.282	.369	.422	.791
Ketel Marte	4.5	.722	.190	.024	.171	.511	.791	.278	.366	.466	.832
Max Kepler	4.4	.621	.167	.016	.120	.449	1.036	.234	.317	.375	.692
Nolan Arenado	4.3	.655	.172	.008	.127	.351	.853	.245	.312	.389	.702
Tim Tawa	4.2	.550	.147	.021	.108	.395	1.137	.218	.296	.353	.649
Ildemaro Vargas	4.1	.720	.155	.033	.064	.268	.531	.256	.311	.364	.675
Tyler Locklear	4.0	.574	.158	.015	.096	.363	1.132	.237	.318	.371	.688

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.7	.922	.191	.024	.066	.489	.371	.291	.368	.396	.765
José Ramírez	4.5	.770	.226	.012	.182	.449	.489	.293	.367	.489	.856
Chase DeLauter	4.4	.812	.222	.017	.150	.414	.568	.300	.368	.477	.845
Travis Bazzana	4.3	.657	.211	.023	.095	.506	.892	.260	.352	.404	.756
Kyle Manzardo	4.2	.559	.169	.017	.179	.447	.983	.247	.334	.445	.779
Brayan Rocchio	4.1	.710	.189	.029	.084	.341	.591	.271	.340	.405	.745
Gabriel Arias	4.0	.609	.182	.017	.121	.269	1.127	.250	.307	.406	.713
Patrick Bailey	3.9	.613	.140	.022	.082	.313	.907	.241	.306	.362	.668
Petey Halpin	3.8	.598	.152	.033	.072	.254	.898	.244	.298	.368	.666

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections