New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

August 4, 2026 · Sean Manaea vs Joey Cantillo · 77°F

6.2% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

51.0%

Cleveland Guardians win

49.0%

Fair line (home)

+104

Proj. total

8.32

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.33)Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.99)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.32

Over

52.5%

Under

47.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	51.0%	+119	-104
Cleveland Guardians	49.0%	-129	+104

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.8	.779	.179	.025	.082	.548	1.198	.251	.340	.363	.703
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.686	.159	.016	.171	.458	.949	.247	.332	.416	.749
Bo Bichette	4.6	.846	.200	.012	.129	.359	.842	.282	.342	.427	.769
Francisco Alvarez	4.5	.575	.153	.009	.200	.456	1.198	.235	.319	.428	.747
Carson Benge	4.4	.675	.151	.021	.124	.441	1.006	.249	.331	.394	.725
Luis Robert Jr.	4.3	.577	.150	.005	.146	.394	1.242	.228	.306	.384	.690
Marcus Semien	4.2	.585	.134	.013	.124	.441	.822	.231	.317	.376	.693
Jared Young	4.0	.533	.150	.012	.145	.427	1.023	.235	.325	.405	.730
Luis Torrens	3.9	.553	.160	.005	.093	.307	.931	.225	.293	.350	.643

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.6	.822	.173	.021	.076	.510	.448	.271	.358	.382	.740
Jo Adell	4.5	.575	.159	.012	.236	.271	1.115	.240	.302	.458	.760
Chase DeLauter	4.3	.702	.196	.017	.148	.436	.677	.274	.351	.447	.798
Rhys Hoskins	4.2	.458	.143	.005	.167	.535	1.238	.212	.323	.391	.714
Angel Martínez	4.1	.607	.173	.014	.128	.227	.910	.240	.294	.392	.686
Travis Bazzana	4.0	.516	.170	.021	.095	.490	.990	.229	.332	.371	.703
Gabriel Arias	3.9	.526	.153	.015	.122	.267	1.276	.226	.288	.379	.667
Austin Hedges	3.8	.517	.109	.005	.095	.326	.907	.211	.288	.329	.617
Brayan Rocchio	3.7	.575	.147	.016	.079	.298	.647	.247	.323	.373	.696

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections