New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

August 5, 2026 · Christian Scott vs Tanner Bibee · 82°F

5.9% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

55.2%

Cleveland Guardians win

44.8%

Fair line (home)

+123

Proj. total

8.5

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.60)Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.90)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.5

Over

53.4%

Under

46.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	55.2%	-101	-123
Cleveland Guardians	44.8%	-107	+123

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.8	.815	.187	.030	.094	.436	1.152	.259	.331	.382	.713
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.709	.165	.027	.199	.403	.870	.261	.337	.454	.792
Bo Bichette	4.6	.854	.202	.013	.149	.280	.783	.285	.334	.443	.776
Carson Benge	4.5	.726	.168	.023	.144	.355	.966	.260	.325	.419	.744
Jared Young	4.4	.597	.167	.014	.182	.381	1.048	.244	.321	.433	.754
Francisco Alvarez	4.3	.573	.145	.008	.215	.359	1.095	.244	.316	.453	.769
Brett Baty	4.2	.627	.133	.015	.145	.338	1.083	.243	.310	.401	.712
Jorge Polanco	4.0	.549	.139	.004	.175	.401	.882	.240	.321	.426	.747
Marcus Semien	3.9	.580	.128	.013	.134	.332	.747	.239	.308	.394	.702

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.6	.800	.159	.020	.075	.513	.494	.262	.351	.368	.719
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.721	.197	.017	.165	.434	.748	.274	.349	.456	.804
Jo Adell	4.4	.562	.153	.011	.237	.256	1.125	.240	.300	.462	.762
Nathaniel Lowe	4.3	.592	.141	.009	.165	.509	1.114	.244	.340	.421	.761
Travis Bazzana	4.2	.532	.178	.021	.103	.504	1.059	.231	.332	.378	.710
Brayan Rocchio	4.0	.609	.156	.022	.090	.347	.741	.242	.320	.371	.691
Petey Halpin	3.9	.535	.134	.029	.083	.270	1.119	.215	.274	.336	.609
Patrick Bailey	3.8	.525	.118	.020	.086	.296	1.069	.215	.281	.334	.615
Angel Genao	3.7	.578	.141	.015	.057	.292	.787	.235	.301	.336	.637

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections