San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

August 15, 2026 · Wandy Peralta vs Joey Cantillo · 79°F

4.5% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

52.2%

Cleveland Guardians win

47.8%

Fair line (home)

+109

Proj. total

8.42

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.44)Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.98)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.42

Over

45.5%

Under

54.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	52.2%	+106	-109
Cleveland Guardians	47.8%	-114	+109

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.747	.197	.014	.191	.583	1.033	.272	.365	.460	.825
Jake Cronenworth	4.7	.634	.174	.017	.109	.593	1.035	.229	.337	.360	.698
Manny Machado	4.6	.637	.175	.002	.203	.493	1.032	.247	.329	.438	.767
Ty France	4.5	.691	.161	.016	.136	.333	1.017	.247	.321	.395	.716
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.625	.183	.030	.145	.368	1.046	.245	.312	.413	.725
Luis Campusano	4.3	.615	.159	.005	.149	.502	.953	.247	.341	.411	.752
Austin Hays	4.2	.584	.163	.025	.122	.334	1.113	.234	.300	.385	.685
Xander Bogaerts	4.1	.666	.150	.004	.099	.437	.795	.254	.338	.380	.718
Freddy Fermin	4.0	.587	.140	.004	.089	.363	.845	.230	.305	.346	.651

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.6	.835	.170	.019	.060	.542	.497	.269	.360	.365	.725
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.738	.206	.016	.134	.471	.736	.273	.353	.433	.786
José Ramírez	4.4	.645	.202	.011	.165	.481	.612	.264	.351	.450	.801
Jo Adell	4.3	.563	.151	.014	.196	.281	1.123	.235	.298	.431	.729
Nathaniel Lowe	4.2	.591	.141	.009	.131	.549	1.078	.242	.346	.395	.740
Angel Genao	4.1	.643	.178	.013	.049	.344	.877	.238	.308	.332	.639
Travis Bazzana	4.0	.526	.164	.017	.077	.525	.993	.230	.339	.356	.694
Patrick Bailey	3.9	.536	.118	.017	.072	.328	1.074	.212	.285	.317	.602
Petey Halpin	3.7	.526	.134	.029	.065	.287	1.041	.221	.285	.334	.619

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections