San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

August 14, 2026 · Michael King vs Gavin Williams · 80°F

6.9% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

54.1%

Cleveland Guardians win

45.9%

Fair line (home)

+118

Proj. total

8.23

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.40)Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.83)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.23

Over

51.5%

Under

36.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	54.1%	+108	-118
Cleveland Guardians	45.9%	-116	+118

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.736	.200	.015	.183	.539	1.075	.266	.355	.449	.804
Jake Cronenworth	4.7	.617	.173	.015	.106	.562	1.082	.223	.328	.351	.678
Manny Machado	4.6	.643	.177	.003	.201	.466	1.084	.248	.326	.438	.764
Ty France	4.5	.697	.163	.013	.133	.326	1.063	.248	.321	.392	.713
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.637	.175	.027	.145	.337	1.097	.243	.305	.408	.713
Luis Campusano	4.3	.618	.152	.005	.150	.477	.990	.245	.334	.407	.741
Gavin Sheets	4.2	.555	.162	.006	.140	.418	.992	.232	.315	.391	.706
Xander Bogaerts	4.1	.665	.155	.005	.099	.408	.841	.255	.335	.383	.718
Luis Rengifo	4.0	.652	.133	.015	.084	.303	.780	.244	.308	.358	.666

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.6	.818	.170	.019	.071	.522	.495	.268	.356	.373	.729
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.743	.204	.015	.147	.464	.730	.278	.356	.447	.804
Angel Martínez	4.4	.641	.180	.018	.132	.259	.996	.239	.294	.390	.685
Nathaniel Lowe	4.3	.590	.150	.011	.146	.540	1.110	.242	.343	.408	.751
Travis Bazzana	4.2	.548	.165	.022	.093	.522	1.057	.229	.333	.364	.698
Angel Genao	4.1	.655	.169	.016	.059	.345	.876	.243	.313	.345	.658
Petey Halpin	4.0	.560	.136	.027	.073	.280	1.144	.218	.279	.331	.609
Patrick Bailey	3.8	.542	.119	.019	.075	.318	1.080	.217	.287	.327	.615
Brayan Rocchio	3.7	.568	.143	.021	.075	.329	.686	.244	.324	.368	.693

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections